Omega Owners Forum
Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: zirk on 03 November 2016, 13:16:43
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So were now in a Transition period between Intentions of Leaving and the actual D Day Cut Off point, and as expected Sterling isnt doing that well, with more uncertainly on the Pound yet to come.
Cant help wondering though, how things would be right now had we had joined up for the Euro Currency all them years ago, would it have effected things right now, or would the rest of Euro Dollor Land have also suffered, presumably we would have had to resign the Euro Currency on the Official Leave the EU Day, or would we?
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Fair observation. If a country that's in the Euro suffers a military coup, terrorist attack on its financial district, goes to war or a dozen other things, surely that has a knock-on effect?
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Fair observation. If a country that's in the Euro suffers a military coup, terrorist attack on its financial district, goes to war or a dozen other things, surely that has a knock-on effect?
Id like to comment, but I dont really understand that one, wasn't quiet thinking about the Military getting involved or going that deep. :-\
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Yes...and Martians......what about Martians? If they invaded Italy would the euro plunge? ;D
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Fair observation. If a country that's in the Euro suffers a military coup, terrorist attack on its financial district, goes to war or a dozen other things, surely that has a knock-on effect?
Id like to comment, but I dont really understand that one, wasn't quiet thinking about the Military getting involved or going that deep. :-\
Sorry, my point being - any number of things can destabilise an economy of a single country and its single curerncy - not sure how if one nation in a collective of nations (ie, the EU/Europe) how much that would affect things - a little, or a lot. Basically I'm agreeing with your point :y
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Yes...and Martians......what about Martians? If they invaded Italy would the euro plunge? ;D
No life on Mars. :)
The aliens from Saturn are a nasty bunch though.
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Fair observation. If a country that's in the Euro suffers a military coup, terrorist attack on its financial district, goes to war or a dozen other things, surely that has a knock-on effect?
Id like to comment, but I dont really understand that one, wasn't quiet thinking about the Military getting involved or going that deep. :-\
Sorry, my point being - any number of things can destabilise an economy of a single country and its single curerncy - not sure how if one nation in a collective of nations (ie, the EU/Europe) how much that would affect things - a little, or a lot. Basically I'm agreeing with your point :y
Ask a Greek ;D The so called union will cut you adrift and squeeze your pips till you cry.
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Yes...and Martians......what about Martians? If they invaded Italy would the euro plunge? ;D
No, as always happens when anybody invades Italy, the Italians huff and puff then side with them.
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;D ;D
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Yes...and Martians......what about Martians? If they invaded Italy would the euro plunge? ;D
No life on Mars. :)
The aliens from Saturn are a nasty bunch though.
Mr Bowie assured us that there was life on Mars :)
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But Bowie was a dyed-in-the-wool b*llocking idiot! ;D
Ron.
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One thing's for sure that had we adopted the Euro, it would have been much harder to leave the EU, as we would have been much more embedded into the European project than we are now. :y
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Had we adopted the Euro, then after 2008 we wouldn't have an economy left to worry or argue about. We would be worse than Greece.
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We are well past a typical 42 month economic cycle and an economic slowdown and a counter-cyclic increase in inflation in the US and UK make interest rates rises likely. This will lead to a much needed up to 30% fall in shares, property and other assets with a market correction. The US will be fine, the UK okay apart from probably RBS, and the brown stuff will hit the Euro fan. US banks have purged their 2008 bad loans, the UK banks mainly have, apart from RBS and the Euro banks, have swept it under the carpet, unfortunately the carpet is now revealing the bones from Deutsche bank, several Italian banks, not yet for Spanish ones, but France and Belgium have some near the edge, and don't mention the Greeks!
This will probably lead to a Euro put up, all in, integration scenario or break up. Politically, all in, means Capital Transfers (which without the flexibility of variable exchange rates you must have) from richer to poorer states and Sovereign Debt pooling. We have both in the UK for the pound currency area. UK Gilts cover England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. We use the Barnett formula and similar arrangements to transfer money from England to the other poorer areas.
In the Euro area capital transfers means from the rich North West and Central Euro zone countries to the poorer Eastern and Southern ones and currently doesn't happen, as a result the economies or the rich and poor ones have diverged Member states are currently responsible for Sovereign Debts they need to be pooled so every country is equally responsible for them. It would be political suicide for any German politician to agree to Capital Transfers and Sovereign Debt pooling, which is why it has been robustly rejected and they will continue to do so, which leaves the only other option failure. :o :o :o