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[Sir Tigger KC]

.... sneaky invasion attempt? 

280 trucks are heading for Ukraine as a Russian humanitarian aid convoy, but is it?   

I have visions of Russian troops hiding behind the pallets of baked beans, ready to jump out as soon as they're over the border!   

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28751447

[Varche]

More like tins of Borsch and bottles of Vodka .

[05omegav6]

Dilligaf 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Dilligaf 

Dunno but I'll take your word for it!   

[Rods2]

Picture of one of the expected aid lorries full of food destined for Luhansk Ukraine.



 

The Ukrainian President has made it quite clear that any "Peacekeeping" or "Humanitarian" mission by Russia will be taken for what it is "an invasion by other means" and will be met with a full military response. They are not going to fall for this ploy that was used during the Georgian invasion in August 2008. And boy will the Ukrainians fight for their home land. The 45,000 troops that are on Ukraine's borders (25,000) in Crimea and there is an on-going build up in Belarus which threatens Kiev, means that Russia has the means for a limited invasion, that they would eventually win through gaining air superiority. They would need 10 times this number of troops to completely take over and hold Ukraine as it is a big country and even then they would lose the peace, where it will become a European Afghanistan. In WWII this is the famous Partisan area which slaughtered many German troops, especially those that escaped the German Army's encirclement at Stalingrad. 99.9% of those that escaped never made it through Ukraine.

Initially, it was planned as a 'Peacekeeping' invasion which is why many of the military vehicles in their 20,000 troop build up near the border have the Russian peace keeping symbol painted on them which is a blue circle with MC painted in yellow within the circle. Last week a convoy of these vehicles set off for the border which triggered phone calls to presidents and prime ministers around the world by the Ukrainian President, who in turn called Putin. The convoy stopped at the border. Now whether this was just a feign to test reactions or they were headed-off I don't know.

The reason Russia is now trying to have their troops involved in any humanitarian mission is so that they are fired on the Russian Terrorists in Ukraine and injured or killed by them with this then blamed on the Ukrainian ATO as a pretext for invasion. If Putin is going to invade it will probably be this month where April's army conscripts have now finished their training, so they will be at their peak efficiency and the weather is still good. IMO opinion it is 50-60% likely that Russia will invade where even with massively increased numbers and heavy equipment Tanks, APC's SAMS etc, plus direct support of Russian special forces and daily Grad rocket attacks from within Russia across the border, the terrorists are still losing and without an intervention will probably have lost within 3 to 4 weeks, where Donetsk is now cut off by ATO forces and Luhansk almost surrounded. Ukraine have made it quite clear that all humanitarian aid will only be allowed across the border driven and accompanied by Red Cross workers. They are not going to fall for Russian ploys, where the only reason the humanitarian aid is required is due to the Russian supplied and equipped terrorists in Ukraine.

An independent assessment:

http://eurasiangeopolitics.com/2014/08/12/what-to-make-of-russias-humanitarian-convoy/

[Varche]

Here we go.

The convoy has entered Ukraine without Ukraine's permission.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28892525

[Rods2]

Russia at the moment is looking for a face saving way out of this situation. One year Russian conscripts that have 6 months to go have a very different concept of motivation and risk taking compared to those fighting to keep their county.

The original terrorists have mainly deserted or claimed their 6x2ft piece of Ukraine and the motley few that were left either made an unwelcome return to their Russian homeland by a 19th August deadline or dispersed to carry out terrorist attacks throughout Ukraine. Many are being rounded up everyday by the SBU.

The troops that are defending the little bits of Ukraine that they still hold are Russian regular troops and special forces and and they are still losing territory, admittedly at a much slower rate than the terrorists, to the battle hardened brave Ukrainian forces. There are reports that Russia is having its own logistical problems in trying to keep an estimated 40,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and if they invade the longer lines of communication will only make things get much worse, especially as increasing numbers of Partisan forces are taking the fight to the invaders every night with shootings and bombings in Donetsk and Luhansk. This started off as civil disobedience with the painting of the Ukrainian flag everywhere during nightly curfews. This flag painting civil disobedience is also happening in Crimea.

Where there are 3 million Ukrainians in Russia, civil disobedience is also beginning to happening there with a famous Soviet star on top of a prominent Moscow building being painted blue and yellow, yellow and blue lines have been painted around the periphery of Red Square and Kremlin ornamental cannons have been painted blue and yellow. The Russian Parliament is now talking about banning Blue and Yellow paint. There are also more and more Ukrainian flag waving demonstrations against the war outside the Ukrainian embassy in Moscow, with the demonstrators being roughed up and arrested. The Cossack regiments that Russia has relied on for their fighting prowess for 100's of years have their historical roots from around the Dneiper regions of Ukraine, including the Donbas region.

After tomorrow's big military parade of their latest military equipment in Kiev to mark 23 years of independence then this will join and boost the ATO in East Ukraine.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/22/open-russian-invasion-in-ukraine-act-of-desperation-or-pure-bluff/

Russia at the moment is trying to hang on until winter to try to use gas as a bargaining tool, but the Ukraine has largely neutralised this threat by the reverse flow of gas from their Western neighbours into Ukraine to have full gas reserves by winter and a campaign to reduce domestic consumption by 10-15%, which should not be hard as one of the most inefficient users in Europe. With soft dropping oil prices from $112/bl a few weeks a go to $97/bl now and a dash for LPG terminals for their gas supplies in Western Europe along with the extension of a pipeline from Azerbaijan and Iran through Turkey in the longer term these are all going to further weaken Russia's Gazprom monopoly, the Gas station with a country bolted to it is heading for serious economic problems. Yesterday, Iran offered to supply all Western gas needs through this new pipeline.