Omega Owners Forum
Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: Varche on 05 March 2014, 10:00:36
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We have armed troops in the Ukraine from an unidentified country! We have Russian troops flexing their might(and the might of the worlds most powerful man according to Forbes).
We might think in the West it doesn't matter let them get on with it BUT a lot of Europes wheat goes out through the Crimea. Without it bread and pasta will go up. Turmoil on the stock markets won't be good for European stock market confidence, investment and recovery. In fact Russians might not feel tempted to invest in property etc
Oh and Putins trump card. He supplies about a third of European gas. How did we let ourselves walk into that!
My gut feeling is that the Western part(North South line including the Crimea) of the Ukraine will end up back under Russian control - a bit like East Germany. That will take a couple of years to get to and a lot of uncertainty. The West can't go to war over the issue. We can impose some sanctions- that is about it.
What does anyone else think? What does Rods2 think will happen?
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We have armed troops in the Ukraine from an unidentified country! We have Russian troops flexing their might(and the might of the worlds most powerful man according to Forbes).
We might think in the West it doesn't matter let them get on with it BUT a lot of Europes wheat goes out through the Crimea. Without it bread and pasta will go up. Turmoil on the stock markets won't be good for European stock market confidence, investment and recovery. In fact Russians might not feel tempted to invest in property etc
Oh and Putins trump card. He supplies about a third of European gas. How did we let ourselves walk into that!
My gut feeling is that the Western part(North South line including the Crimea) of the Ukraine will end up back under Russian control - a bit like East Germany. That will take a couple of years to get to and a lot of uncertainty. The West can't go to war over the issue. We can impose some sanctions- that is about it.
What does anyone else think? What does Rods2 think will happen?
The most likely outcome, I think.
Land grab without a 'real invasion'
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Hard question Varche as close half of Ukraine's population is Russian even I don't understand how they could be together up to now at all. My guess is Putin's intention to be creating a spare territory as a possible conflict-zone between NATO and Russian federation getting realised in these weeks. Despite the fact of Ukrainians are also slavic people Russia never considered them brothers. Once I have met some Russian speaker Ukrainians and asked about nationality of them : "Ukrainian" answered and added that "it just means people who living on the edge of country" and really: "krainiy" or "kray" means edge of something. To lose East-Ukraine would be a total K.O. for Ukraine as most of industry, tourism and the best facilities there are. West-Ukraina is much poorer she has no more than agriculture. I think Putin gonna create a referendum where the majority will vote beside the independency as most of them are Russians.
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So many questions, and once again a very complex international situation with significant historical roots that once had the British Empire involved in some famous military action, but now is about Russia facing up to Russian speaking , and in many cases a loyal to Russia population in Crimea / Ukraine.
But for sure the West should stay well clear of this one as it has little to do with us, and is certainly not worth the risk of war, which I understand all Western governments are in agreement with. This is no excuse to start World War III.
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Surely better for Ukraine to be part of Mother Russia and stable, than wind up like Yugoslavia :-\
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Putin has been running rings around the so called leaders of the west for years.
He also makes no secret of longing for the old days of the USSR and the security its satellite states gave to the motherland.
A quick look at Ukraine
Whether Yanakovich is a dodgy character or not is irrelevant.
He was democratically elected into power by the people of the Ukraine and was removed by mob rule which is always going to end in tears. See Libya and Syria for details.
The western half who mostly speak Ukrainian wants to be in the EU / NATO and all the grants / benefits it brings.
The eastern half who mostly speak Russian wants to renew closer ties to Russia.
Russia is genuinely paranoid about having a NATO country sat on its doorstep too.
Where will it end ?
Imo, this is the start of Cold War 2 :( :(
Ukraine will end up being split in two with a big fence between them.
What can the west do about it ?
Sweet F**k All >:(
As said, Russia holds most of the cards again.
They have oil, gas and raw materials a plenty.
Us in Europe have next to nothing and have to go cap in hand to Putin to supply the gas or mainland Europe will freeze >:(
Us in the UK at least had the brains to do a deal with Norway and build a pipeline across the North Sea.
We also have been increasing the amount of bulk LPG we import via tankers so we should be okay on that front :y
There is no way on earth that the UK will back sanctions against Russia because the first thing they would do is take there money out of the London banking world. This would screw us up big style >:(
What can NATO do about it ?
Eh, nothing >:( >:(
The hierarchy couldn't organise a piss up and a brewery and we haven't the men, machines, ammo or spares to go against Russia like we could have done 25 years ago >:(
In fact the only way we could hold Russia if it got nasty is by using Trident and that is basically the end of the world :'( :'(
If this happens, the question for me is .............. who's next ?
Poland or maybe Estonia ?
I just hope Rods family are in the western side of the country :)
One last thing about Russia.
Where as we in the west always tend to think short term to keep the votes / people happy, the Russians and Chinese always play the long game ;)
If the western leaders has any brains at all, the above fact should scare the shit out of them :(
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There is much less support by Russian people in the East for a Russian invasion than you imagine. A lot of the Freedom Square protesters were Russian speaking from the east of the country. They actually like the idea of the EU agreement and the chance to earn much more money by getting a jobs in Europe, which relaxed visa restrictions as part of the EU agreement would allow. Most revolutions are by young people, many of the Freedom Square protesters were old men and women, that is because many of the men were Red Army Afghan veterans who came to 'protect their children'.
Reports suggest that many of the protestors in the East Ukraine are Russian agent provocateurs, which they will use as a pre-text if necessary.
The fact that the interim Ukraine government and the Russian government are now talking is a good sign and the Russian / US / EU foreign ministers are meeting in Paris tomorrow is another one.
Yanukovych is finished, where his massive corruption and alleged theft of $30billion in 3.5 years of rule have come to light. The people knew he was raping the country financially, which is no surprise as he is an alleged convicted thief and rapist, who allegedly got the judge who he appointed as head of the supreme court to lose the paperwork. When this was questioned in the run up to the election in 2010 his answer was prove it by showing the court papers. He was trying to create a one party system, by jailing or barring all credible opponents to himself in the 2015 election. Putin has got away with this in Russia, but the Ukrainian people weren't having it. Putin treats him with contempt, where he failed and is keeping him in the background to use as a useful fool when necessary.
I personally think any splitting of the country will end up with massive instability where no region is exclusively Russian or Ukrainian and the Ukrainians being Cossacks are fighters. Many are Afghan veterans from when they were conscripts in the red army and are quite well aware of what it is like to be on the wrong end of irregular forces and of course they were the famous Partisans of WWII, who made sure very few Germans who escaped from Stalingrad made it back across Ukraine to the German front lines. When the Nazis controlled Ukraine during WWII and had a policy of killing 100 civilians for each German soldier killed, this did not stop the Partisans. The Ukrainians were briefly a sovereign state in 1918, before being taken over by the Bolsheviks and were very badly treated under Soviet rule, especially by Stalin who starved to death 5 to 8 million in West Ukraine in the 1932 Holodomor over collectivization and was his favourite WWII cannon fodder. Believe me there is no love lost between the Ukrainians of West Ukraine and Russia.
What will happen in Crimea I don't know, the Russians for strategic reasons may well keep it. The population split is about 60% Russian, 25% Ukrainian, and 15% muslim Tartars. The Tartars hate the Russians after Stalin transported most of them to Siberian labour camps in the 1940's and want to stay Ukrainian. How long before Al qaeda gets involved like in Syria? Strategically Crimea is much more important to Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine will actually be stronger economically without it where is is a big drain on the national finances.
Russia achilles heel is their economy, which has tanked over the last 3 years with growth dropping from an average of 5.5% to 1.3% and still dropping. This Monday cost them $10billion in central bank support of the Ruble, a 1.5% interest rate rise and a 9% drop in their stock market. The US and EU threat of selective visa restrictions, freezing of assets etc, might sound like a weak response, but the core of Putin's control of the Russian Government and people relies on the support of a small group of oligarchs. Now if their assets are frozen including their foreign business interests, they cannot get visas for travel, which will include expensive but unused yachts then this will sow the seed of discontent within his core. Europe has reduced their dependence on Russian gas from 45% to 25% and this will continue to drop. Putin burnt his boat here when he cut of gas to Ukraine, which also meant Bulgaria and Romania ran out of gas in winter. The EU is determined to cut their dependence to close to zero. The current trend for oil and gas prices (apart from the current blip) is downwards and again Putin needs a growing economy with a high feelgood factor for his 2016 elections.
Russia as part of the talks in Paris, want to see more Russian representation from the east of the country (ie more influence) in the interim government. If an agreement is reached in Paris then jaw, jaw may triumph over war, war.
Militarily wise the West will do nothing, they will not risk a direct conflict between two nuclear armed nations and quite rightly so. Obama is a very weak President, who threw away all his bargaining cards over Syria, which will hit the Democratic party vote wise (remember Carter) with the Republicans doing well in polls for the mid-term elections and when the president finishes his second term. American's do not like presidents who are weak on the world's stage after all of the money they pump into the military.
The worst case scenario would be Russia annexing all of the Ukraine, which means they will have to prop it up with $31billion as an absolute minimum over the next 2 years and having to contend with an Afghanistan / Yugoslavia scenario and all of the costs this involves in money and human capital, with ieds or worse around many corners waiting for their army of occupation. In this scenario, the US might supply arms to the Partisans directly or through third-parties like they did when Russia invaded Afghanistan.
Continued:
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Lizzie from a historical point of view might be interested in several articles written by Professor Timothy Snyder about Ukraine on the nybooks blog. The guy is an obvious liberal, but the writing is in a very sober form where he Professor of History at Yale University, specializing in the history of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust. For the academic year 2013–2014, he has been the holder of the Philippe Roman Chair of International History at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
This is his most recent:
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/mar/01/ukraine-haze-propaganda/?insrc=hpss (http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/mar/01/ukraine-haze-propaganda/?insrc=hpss)
This is a very complex situation, with one or two reasonably good outcomes and many, many possible bad ones. How it will end up I've no idea as it is a very fluid situation, with all sides making good and bad decisions as things unfold. I can only hope for the best.
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And what if Russia is right in this situation? I mean, whether occurred these events if Ukrainian Rada behaved a bit more friendly with foreign language minorities? If kept the law, which guaranteed free language using for all the minorities of Ukraine? Slovakian, Romanian, Hungarian, Russian and so on...
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Surely better for Ukraine to be part of Mother Russia and stable, than wind up like Yugoslavia :-\
It will never be stable under Russian control as the West Ukrainians hate the Russians and what they did to the people in Soviet times. If they annex the country you will end up with Afghanistan / Yugoslavian situation or worse.
Yesterday, the matching of the Colonel and his troops up to the Russian line at the military airport and not stopping until they reached their objective, despite the Russians firing into the air, was planned. Likewise the football match afterwards. The marching was telling the Russians, we are not scared of you and the football match played in front of of them? You can't intimidate us. This Ukrainian / Cossack attitude to a T.
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Surely better for Ukraine to be part of Mother Russia and stable, than wind up like Yugoslavia :-\
It will never be stable under Russian control as the West Ukrainians hate the Russians and what they did to the people in Soviet times. If they annex the country you will end up with Afghanistan / Yugoslavian situation or worse.
Yesterday, the matching of the Colonel and his troops up to the Russian line at the military airport and not stopping until they reached their objective, despite the Russians firing into the air, was planned. Likewise the football match afterwards. The marching was telling the Russians, we are not scared of you and the football match played in front of of them? You can't intimidate us. This Ukrainian / Cossack attitude to a T.
Yup. We westerners will never understand it. Leave them to it I say. Russia knows it cannot go too far without provoking a response (which would be just as detrimental to Russia as us)
Welcome to 21st century warfare, a fight without fighting.
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And what if Russia is right in this situation? I mean, whether occurred these events if Ukrainian Rada behaved a bit more friendly with foreign language minorities? If kept the law, which guaranteed free language using for all the minorities of Ukraine? Slovakian, Romanian, Hungarian, Russian and so on...
If you think the Russians are right? Then so was the invasion of Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the 1950's / 1960's as the reasons are largely the same? The people want independence from the bullying Russian bear!
The Ukrainian parliament have only repealed a hated law passed by Yanukovych making Russian and Ukrainian both official languages. To do so at this time was a mistake in my view. The Ukrainians who speak Russian will carry on doing so as the majority of them are actually Ukrainian, who speak Russian for historical reasons, where it was the official language of the Soviet Union. This applies across families in different parts of the Ukraine including my extended one. Most Ukrainians apart from those in the very east and Crimea speak both languages. Russian will stay as the second language of the Ukraine. The languages are very close, with Ukrainian classed as old Russian.
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And what if Russia is right in this situation? I mean, whether occurred these events if Ukrainian Rada behaved a bit more friendly with foreign language minorities? If kept the law, which guaranteed free language using for all the minorities of Ukraine? Slovakian, Romanian, Hungarian, Russian and so on...
If you think the Russians are right? Then so was the invasion of Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the 1950's / 1960's as the reasons are largely the same? The people want independence from the bullying Russian bear!
The Ukrainian parliament have only repealed a hated law passed by Yanukovych making Russian and Ukrainian both official languages. To do so at this time was a mistake in my view. The Ukrainians who speak Russian will carry on doing so as the majority of them are actually Ukrainian, who speak Russian for historical reasons, where it was the official language of the Soviet Union. This applies across families in different parts of the Ukraine including my extended one. Most Ukrainians apart from those in the very east and Crimea speak both languages. Russian will stay as the second language of the Ukraine. The languages are very close, with Ukrainian classed as old Russian.
There were no minority-related acts by legislation so the situation is certainly not the same.
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Your the man in the know Rods, thanks for that lot :y
At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.
Hope your family is okay ?
Keep us informed if you will, its certainly more interesting then the joys of STEMO's anal inspections ;D
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Your the man in the know Rods, thanks for that lot :y
At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.
Hope your family is okay ?
Keep us informed if you will, its certainly more interesting then the joys of STEMO's anal inspections ;D
To you......maybe :-\
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And what if Russia is right in this situation? I mean, whether occurred these events if Ukrainian Rada behaved a bit more friendly with foreign language minorities? If kept the law, which guaranteed free language using for all the minorities of Ukraine? Slovakian, Romanian, Hungarian, Russian and so on...
1If you think the Russians are right? Then so was the invasion of Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the 1950's / 1960's as the reasons are largely the same? The people want independence from the bullying Russian bear!
The Ukrainian parliament have only repealed a hated law passed by Yanukovych making Russian and Ukrainian both official languages. To do so at this time was a mistake in my view. The Ukrainians who speak Russian will carry on doing so as the majority of them are actually Ukrainian, who speak Russian for historical reasons, where it was the official language of the Soviet Union. This applies across families in different parts of the Ukraine including my extended one. Most Ukrainians apart from those in the very east and Crimea speak both languages. Russian will stay as the second language of the Ukraine. 2The languages are very close, with Ukrainian classed as old Russian.
1 There were no minority-related acts by legislation anywhere so the situation is certainly not the same.
2 Indeed they are very close but reversely if I know well, as the slavic nations and theirs language came from the territory of present Russia so the old Russian can not be other than the original Russian. I've got quite close relationships in the Hungarian community in Ukraine and often hear complaining teachers about they have to teach never existed historical events in point of history of Ukraine , even they had to get children in the elementary write about a day of the Ukrainian cave man... :-\ Forgot to mention that Ukrainian ultra-nationalist's best topic is: who had been here first? :-\ I just want to say it is actually a real threaten in Ukraine. Unfortunately. :(
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And what if Russia is right in this situation? I mean, whether occurred these events if Ukrainian Rada behaved a bit more friendly with foreign language minorities? If kept the law, which guaranteed free language using for all the minorities of Ukraine? Slovakian, Romanian, Hungarian, Russian and so on...
If you think the Russians are right? Then so was the invasion of Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the 1950's / 1960's as the reasons are largely the same? The people want independence from the bullying Russian bear!
The Ukrainian parliament have only repealed a hated law passed by Yanukovych making Russian and Ukrainian both official languages. To do so at this time was a mistake in my view. The Ukrainians who speak Russian will carry on doing so as the majority of them are actually Ukrainian, who speak Russian for historical reasons, where it was the official language of the Soviet Union. This applies across families in different parts of the Ukraine including my extended one. Most Ukrainians apart from those in the very east and Crimea speak both languages. Russian will stay as the second language of the Ukraine. The languages are very close, with Ukrainian classed as old Russian.
There were no minority-related acts by legislation so the situation is certainly not the same.
There is no persecution of the Russian minority which is about 30% of the population by Ukrainians. The law with the Russian language has now reverted back to how it was from 1991 to 2010 with Ukrainian the official language but Russian recognised as a second language. The main reason Yanukovych was keen on this law was because he speaks very little Ukrainian. My understanding is that the language and the orthodox religion all came from the Rus region around Kyiv and this is why Ukrainian is the old form of the language and Russian the modern version.
There have never been until the last few weeks any major tensions between the Russian and Ukrainian populations, with Russians identifying themselves as Ukrainians and this is all the population's country. The interim government want to unify the country as this is in their interests and also all of the populations. The industrial heartland is in the east and all Ukrainians recognise that they benefit from the production and exports from this. In the south and most western major cities (including Kyiv, Lyiv being an exception) Russian is spoken even though the majority of people in the west of the country are of Ukrainian origin.
The enemy of virtually all of the people is rampant corruption and crony capitalism, which means that there are the very rich few and the many poor. In the world corruption index Ukraine is at about 180 out of 200 odd countries. Under Yanukovych if you were outside of his political circle and already running a successful business or started one then there was a good chance that your profits would be subject to a 'tax investigation' and extra payments or you would be made an offer you couldn't refuse at the ruling classes prices with no redress to law and the courts as this was also controlled by them. This was the common enemy of all Ukrainians, hence the protests with many Russians-Ukrainians and Ukrainians protesting (and dying) side by side to remove this cancer which affects all of them from society. This also affected many workers in the east where strikes or any other expression of workers rights, would lead to dismissal, again with no redress through the courts. They looked upon the EU trade agreement and influence as a way of stamping out this cancer from society so it became an aspiration and hence they became the centre of the protests.
What virtually all Ukrainians see in Western Europe, are relatively uncorrupt rich countries with independent courts, respected property and human rights and they want the same. The old Soviet East European countries in the EU still have corruption problems, which I understand are gradually improving, but none of them have problems on Ukraine's scale.
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Your the man in the know Rods, thanks for that lot :y
At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.
Hope your family is okay ?
Keep us informed if you will, its certainly more interesting then the joys of STEMO's anal inspections ;D
For the best world news coverage, I commend Al Jazeera, which gives excellent reports from around the world. It is not, as many think, a mouthpiece for Arab propaganda. :y
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Lizzie from a historical point of view might be interested in several articles written by Professor Timothy Snyder about Ukraine on the nybooks blog. The guy is an obvious liberal, but the writing is in a very sober form where he Professor of History at Yale University, specializing in the history of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust. For the academic year 2013–2014, he has been the holder of the Philippe Roman Chair of International History at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
This is his most recent:
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/mar/01/ukraine-haze-propaganda/?insrc=hpss (http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/mar/01/ukraine-haze-propaganda/?insrc=hpss)
This is a very complex situation, with one or two reasonably good outcomes and many, many possible bad ones. How it will end up I've no idea as it is a very fluid situation, with all sides making good and bad decisions as things unfold. I can only hope for the best.
Thanks for that interesting piece, and your resume which I agree with. The fact is, as I have repeatedly stated on other international affairs, the path to true democracy is a very long and hard one. Britain went along that path, and also hindered the hopes of others in the time of the British Empire, with India in particular coming to mind, let alone during the earlier creation of the United States of America.
Russia itself is going down that very same path to eventually acquire full democracy, and so it's old imperialistic states are being affected by the "old parent" who in part is trying to hold on to the reigns, but one day must recognise the need to finally let go of the apron strings, and the perceived powers it represents.
Once more I say leave well alone and let the natural rhythm, and the will of the local people, take the situation forward to it's conclusion. :y
Remember, all the old empires tried to dictate to the emerging states where the future laid, but the nationalistic forces within reached out and made their own way to their utopia's. The blood spilt in these developments throughout history have finally added up, or are still adding up, to create a brave new world.
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Your the man in the know Rods, thanks for that lot :y
At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.
Hope your family is okay ?
Keep us informed if you will, its certainly more interesting then the joys of STEMO's anal inspections ;D
For the best world news coverage, I commend Al Jazeera, which gives excellent reports from around the world. It is not, as many think, a mouthpiece for Arab propaganda. :y
Noted :y
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One wonders what would happen if people had nothing to worry about... :-\
Oh wait, yes I know, they'd be worried. ::)
Putin just finds it all a bit close too home, that's all. Sebastapole security too. What else are they interested in Ukrane? Nothing.
Busing in supporters, they must think we where all born yesterday.
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I said Russia will soon sort it.. thats happening now.. they have the power and wont permit any foreign force in front of the door.. Ukraine become like this because west lost in Syria and they wanted to give an answer ..
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At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.
I watched a bit of Russia Today yesterday and they were really going to town on the Yanks, listing all the countries that the US has invaded or interfered with and were basically calling them a bunch of hypocrites! ::)
They then did a piece about how Yanukovych was democratically elected, only to be forced to flee in fear of his life from armed fascist gangsters, backed up by corrupt oligarchs and western countries! :o and then they went on to profile Ukraine's new leaders and showed their nice mansions. :)
Now you don't get that sort of thing on the BBC!! ::) ;D
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At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.
I watched a bit of Russia Today yesterday and they were really going to town on the Yanks, listing all the countries that the US has invaded or interfered with and were basically calling them a bunch of hypocrites! ::)
They then did a piece about how Yanukovych was democratically elected, only to be forced to flee in fear of his life from armed fascist gangsters, backed up by corrupt oligarchs and western countries! :o and then they went on to profile Ukraine's new leaders and showed their nice mansions. :)
Now you don't get that sort of thing on the BBC!! ::) ;D
That is a FACT that we in the West cannot ignore, and it is not just the USA of course that this can be applied to!! ::) ::)
There is no way we can ever take the moral high ground.
.........and yes, I still love the great National Anthem of the USSR which my left wing father played every so often..........
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U06jlgpMtQs
:y
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At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.
I watched a bit of Russia Today yesterday and they were really going to town on the Yanks, listing all the countries that the US has invaded or interfered with and were basically calling them a bunch of hypocrites! ::)
They then did a piece about how Yanukovych was democratically elected, only to be forced to flee in fear of his life from armed fascist gangsters, backed up by corrupt oligarchs and western countries! :o and then they went on to profile Ukraine's new leaders and showed their nice mansions. :)
Now you don't get that sort of thing on the BBC!! ::) ;D
You missed the bit where the newscaster resigned in protest then? ;D
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So it looks as though Crimea is going to join itself with the Russian Federation.
The Crimean MP's have democratically voted to go down that route, with some form of referendum being undertaken for the people of Crimea over the next two weeks and Russia being asked to approve such a move.
Probably the best thing that could happen in the circumstances and will hopefully silence the western powers. :y
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At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.
I watched a bit of Russia Today yesterday and they were really going to town on the Yanks, listing all the countries that the US has invaded or interfered with and were basically calling them a bunch of hypocrites! ::)
They then did a piece about how Yanukovych was democratically elected, only to be forced to flee in fear of his life from armed fascist gangsters, backed up by corrupt oligarchs and western countries! :o and then they went on to profile Ukraine's new leaders and showed their nice mansions. :)
Now you don't get that sort of thing on the BBC!! ::) ;D
That is a FACT that we in the West cannot ignore, and it is not just the USA of course that this can be applied to!! ::) ::)
There is no way we can ever take the moral high ground.
.........and yes, I still love the great National Anthem of the USSR which my left wing father played every so often..........
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U06jlgpMtQs
:y
.......and there was me thinking that your dad was either Anthony Eden or Alec Douglas Home. ;) :-* :-* :-* :-*
I obviously know nothing. :) ;D ;D
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So it looks as though Crimea is going to join itself with the Russian Federation.
The Crimean MP's have democratically voted to go down that route, with some form of referendum being undertaken for the people of Crimea over the next two weeks and Russia being asked to approve such a move.
Probably the best thing that could happen in the circumstances and will hopefully silence the western powers. :y
I wonder about that, when their territory is occupied by Russia and possibly Crimean MP's worry about disappearing in the night if they go against Uncle Vlad. :-\
They should set the referendum after the Ukrainian elections in May so the people of Crimea can have a proper idea of what the future of Ukraine might look like and they can have a national conversation about the future of their country. So a referendum in a years time when the dust has settled, under international supervision/observation and with sensible debate would be democratic. A snap referendum under the barrels of Russian guns is not democracy in my opinion! ::)
I was no fan of Tony Blairs government, but the decision to upgrade our hunter/killer subs and to build the 2 new aircraft carriers might yet prove to be wise. Nobody wants war but history tells us that appeasing territory hungry bullies just dosn't work! :(
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At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.
I watched a bit of Russia Today yesterday and they were really going to town on the Yanks, listing all the countries that the US has invaded or interfered with and were basically calling them a bunch of hypocrites! ::)
They then did a piece about how Yanukovych was democratically elected, only to be forced to flee in fear of his life from armed fascist gangsters, backed up by corrupt oligarchs and western countries! :o and then they went on to profile Ukraine's new leaders and showed their nice mansions. :)
Now you don't get that sort of thing on the BBC!! ::) ;D
That is a FACT that we in the West cannot ignore, and it is not just the USA of course that this can be applied to!! ::) ::)
There is no way we can ever take the moral high ground.
.........and yes, I still love the great National Anthem of the USSR which my left wing father played every so often..........
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U06jlgpMtQs
:y
.......and there was me thinking that your dad was either Anthony Eden or Alec Douglas Home. ;) :-* :-* :-* :-*
I obviously know nothing. :) ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D
The funny thing is that sometimes I thought he was as mad or mixed up as Eden! Although a senior Royal Navy NCO, he would often go around saying "better Red than dead, whilst at other times happily singing Nazi / SS / Kriegsmarine marching songs!
No wonder I am never quite sure if I am to the left of centre or hard right wing! ;D ;D ;)
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So it looks as though Crimea is going to join itself with the Russian Federation.
The Crimean MP's have democratically voted to go down that route, with some form of referendum being undertaken for the people of Crimea over the next two weeks and Russia being asked to approve such a move.
Probably the best thing that could happen in the circumstances and will hopefully silence the western powers. :y
I wonder about that, when their territory is occupied by Russia and possibly Crimean MP's worry about disappearing in the night if they go against Uncle Vlad. :-\
They should set the referendum after the Ukrainian elections in May so the people of Crimea can have a proper idea of what the future of Ukraine might look like and they can have a national conversation about the future of their country. So a referendum in a years time when the dust has settled, under international supervision/observation and with sensible debate would be democratic. A snap referendum under the barrels of Russian guns is not democracy in my opinion! ::)
I was no fan of Tony Blairs government, but the decision to upgrade our hunter/killer subs and to build the 2 new aircraft carriers might yet prove to be wise. Nobody wants war but history tells us that appeasing territory hungry bullies just dosn't work! :(
Maybe, but when 58% of the population are apparently ethnic Russians.................?
As for them orders for new major warships; I have stated for some time this is a great move, along with the replacement of Trident, as this World will never be a safe place and the belief the threat to our nation comes from terrorists only is plain wrong. We must be prepared for a return of usual international warfare, and having more at the negotiating table than piss and air! :y :y
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"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..
I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..
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So it looks as though Crimea is going to join itself with the Russian Federation.
The Crimean MP's have democratically voted to go down that route, with some form of referendum being undertaken for the people of Crimea over the next two weeks and Russia being asked to approve such a move.
Probably the best thing that could happen in the circumstances and will hopefully silence the western powers. :y
I wonder about that, when their territory is occupied by Russia and possibly Crimean MP's worry about disappearing in the night if they go against Uncle Vlad. :-\
They should set the referendum after the Ukrainian elections in May so the people of Crimea can have a proper idea of what the future of Ukraine might look like and they can have a national conversation about the future of their country. So a referendum in a years time when the dust has settled, under international supervision/observation and with sensible debate would be democratic. A snap referendum under the barrels of Russian guns is not democracy in my opinion! ::)
I was no fan of Tony Blairs government, but the decision to upgrade our hunter/killer subs and to build the 2 new aircraft carriers might yet prove to be wise. Nobody wants war but history tells us that appeasing territory hungry bullies just dosn't work! :(
Quite agree. Will the ethic Tartars, who Crimea really belongs to be forced out again?
Putin has obviously been reading up on Hitler as he was keen on these sort of Plebsides under the threat of a gun barrel.
I think the most important lesson for any country is never ever, ever give up weapon systems, especially nuclear weapons on the basis of a useless piece of toilet paper signed by any Western power guaranteeing territorial integrity.
It will be interesting to see if Crimeans think it was a good idea in a year or two to join Russia, when they find how restricted media freedom and their human rights are compared to Ukraine. There has been a protest today by feminists in Crimea, who have all been arrested jointly by the police and Russian troops.
Several Ukrainian organizations that represent ethnic Russian and the Jewish populations have written to Putin today telling him that there is no ethnic tensions or discrimination against them in Ukraine with the Jewish organisation pointing out that is unlike Russia where anti-semitic activity against jews has increased over the last 12 months. Oops!
Putin with his public lies to justify his unjustifiable actions might fool some of the Russian population, but not the rest of the world. No wonder Merkel has questioned whether he is in touch with reality!
With the weak response with Germany putting trade before any sort of measures against Russia, who is next on Putins list? Like Ukraine, in previous comments he considers the three Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania as Russian territory that should be returned to the fold and he has in the past issued Russian passports to ethnic Russians in these territories in times of tension, which is what they have done in all land grabs so far using the pretext of protecting Russian citizens.
What has happened in Ukraine and the West's weak disunited response has definitely strengthened Putin's hand and made the world a much more dangerous place. Major wars are generally started by dictators especially appeased dictators, but the good news is that they are generally won by democracies. But with obviously lots of bad stuff in between, which may have been avoided with a more robust response.
It is interesting that Russia's ally China are not backing them.
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"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..
I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..
Out of context quote from FSB (formally KGB) intercept. I would suggest you read the complete quotation by the Estonian minister.
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It is interesting that Russia's ally China are not backing them.
No but they havn't condemned Russia's actions either. The Chinese are sat quietly watching and listening to see how this pans out, as they have their own territorial ambitions in the South China Sea (disputes with The Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia), East China Sea (Japan) and Taiwan. ::)
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No wonder I am never quite sure if I am to the left of centre or hard right wing! ;D ;D ;)
Nevermind Lizzie, no matter which way you turn onto the political merry-go-round , if you go far enough, you'll always wind up where you started :y
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No wonder I am never quite sure if I am to the left of centre or hard right wing! ;D ;D ;)
Nevermind Lizzie, no matter which way you turn onto the political merry-go-round , if you go far enough, you'll always wind up where you started :y
Lizzie's probably at that extreme point where left and right meet! :P ;D
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"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..
I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..
Out of context quote from FSB (formally KGB) intercept. I would suggest you read the complete quotation by the Estonian minister.
I would be pleased if you share the complete quotation :)
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No wonder I am never quite sure if I am to the left of centre or hard right wing! ;D ;D ;)
Nevermind Lizzie, no matter which way you turn onto the political merry-go-round , if you go far enough, you'll always wind up where you started :y
Lizzie's probably at that extreme point where left and right meet! :P ;D
You're both so right! :D :D :y :y
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"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..
I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..
Out of context quote from FSB (formally KGB) intercept. I would suggest you read the complete quotation by the Estonian minister.
I would be pleased if you share the complete quotation :)
In the leaked audio, Paet, speaking in imperfect English, says a doctor identified only as Olga had told him on a visit to Kiev that snipers may have come from the opposition.
'The same Olga told that, well, all the evidence shows that people who were killed by snipers from both sides among policemen and then people from the street,' Paet says.
So that there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition,' he said, referring to the former opposition to deposed President Viktor Yanukovich.
He added that Ukrainians do not trust the Maidan leaders as all the opposition politicians have a 'dirty past'.
In a statement, the Estonian government denied Paet viewed the opposition as being involved in the sniping.
'Foreign Minister Paet was giving an overview of what he had heard the previous day in Kiev and expressed concern over the situation on the ground,' it said.
'We reject the claim that Paet was giving an assessment of the opposition's involvement in the violence.
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"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..
I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..
Out of context quote from FSB (formally KGB) intercept. I would suggest you read the complete quotation by the Estonian minister.
I would be pleased if you share the complete quotation :)
In the leaked audio, Paet, speaking in imperfect English, says a doctor identified only as Olga had told him on a visit to Kiev that snipers may have come from the opposition.
'The same Olga told that, well, all the evidence shows that people who were killed by snipers from both sides among policemen and then people from the street,' Paet says.
So that there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition,' he said, referring to the former opposition to deposed President Viktor Yanukovich.
He added that Ukrainians do not trust the Maidan leaders as all the opposition politicians have a 'dirty past'.
In a statement, the Estonian government denied Paet viewed the opposition as being involved in the sniping.
'Foreign Minister Paet was giving an overview of what he had heard the previous day in Kiev and expressed concern over the situation on the ground,' it said.
'We reject the claim that Paet was giving an assessment of the opposition's involvement in the violence.
do you really think that officials will accept that officially ;D ;D ;D ;D
Rods, every one knows who are behind the scenes.. believe me I'm bored of watching the same tape/game over and over.. :(
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So it looks as though Crimea is going to join itself with the Russian Federation.
The Crimean MP's have democratically voted to go down that route, with some form of referendum being undertaken for the people of Crimea over the next two weeks and Russia being asked to approve such a move.
Probably the best thing that could happen in the circumstances and will hopefully silence the western powers. :y
I wonder about that, when their territory is occupied by Russia and possibly Crimean MP's worry about disappearing in the night if they go against Uncle Vlad. :-\
They should set the referendum after the Ukrainian elections in May so the people of Crimea can have a proper idea of what the future of Ukraine might look like and they can have a national conversation about the future of their country. So a referendum in a years time when the dust has settled, under international supervision/observation and with sensible debate would be democratic. A snap referendum under the barrels of Russian guns is not democracy in my opinion! ::)
I was no fan of Tony Blairs government, but the decision to upgrade our hunter/killer subs and to build the 2 new aircraft carriers might yet prove to be wise. Nobody wants war but history tells us that appeasing territory hungry bullies just dosn't work! :(
Putin has obviously been reading up on Hitler as he was keen on these sort of Plebsides under the threat of a gun barrel.
I think the most important lesson for any country is never ever, ever give up weapon systems, especially nuclear weapons on the basis of a useless piece of toilet paper signed by any Western power guaranteeing territorial integrity.
It will be interesting to see if Crimeans think it was a good idea in a year or two to join Russia, when they find how restricted media freedom and their human rights are compared to Ukraine. There has been a protest today by feminists in Crimea, who have all been arrested jointly by the police and Russian troops.
Several Ukrainian organizations that represent ethnic Russian and the Jewish populations have written to Putin today telling him that there is no ethnic tensions or discrimination against them in Ukraine with the Jewish organisation pointing out that is unlike Russia where anti-semitic activity against jews has increased over the last 12 months. Oops!
Putin with his public lies to justify his unjustifiable actions might fool some of the Russian population, but not the rest of the world. No wonder Merkel has questioned whether he is in touch with reality!
What has happened in Ukraine and the West's weak disunited response has definitely strengthened Putin's hand and made the world a much more dangerous place. Major wars are generally started by dictators especially appeased dictators, but the good news is that they are generally won by democracies. But with obviously lots of bad stuff in between, which may have been avoided with a more robust response.
It is interesting that Russia's ally China are not backing them.
Russia is far from being in the position that Hitler and the Nazi's were in during the late 1930s, so there should be no comparison with that dictator and the current situation in Crimea. The closest comparison is Hitler's march, that was welcomed, into Austria and so joining two German speaking people's. Russia is not economically, industrially, or even militarily (being only at apparently 82% strength, with just 772k paid troops, as opposed to unpaid conscripts) in a position to mount a war on the scale Hitler did from Poland onwards. Putin also has a large proportion of Russians that are democratically spoken with an active opposition, which Hitler did not have to contend with as by 1938 he had silenced them all, with a people then keen to take over countries and territories that "belonged" to Germany.
The Western powers were limited in what they could do in 1938, as indeed they are now. Do you mobilize your military forces and create a far bigger conflict, as in 1914, with now in 2014 the added dimension of nuclear conflict that would result in MAD, or do you jaw, jaw and jaw again until a resolution can be determined that suits all parties? This is what is happening now and it is foolish, if not plainly naive, to think this is an easy task.
No, pieces of paper, no matter how important they seemed at the time, have proved throughout history to be utterly worthless, sometimes very destructive, and then forgotten almost as soon as the ink has dried, with politics doing what it does best; distort the truth and ensure the authors wishes are fulfilled! The West cannot be expected to come up with answers to the Ukraine crisis, no more than it can in the case of the Middle East or North Africa. A series of compromises, along with stick and carrot dialogue, now needs to happen. But, in the end the combined power of the western allies in both democratic, diplomatic, and military terms can today be applied in a form not possible in 1938.
As for China, her interests lay in the West, not the Russian Federation, with global trade as the carrot that was never the situation in 1938, or during the Cold War. :)
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I'm not suggesting that Putin is about to start WWIII, Russia and the US are always very careful to avoid a direct conflict and quite rightly so, but I think there could have been a much more robust response from the west, which is short of any military intervention. What we have seen in the past is indirect military support for both sides like in the Arab / Israeli wars and Afghanistan.
Russia is effectively a one party state, all potential opposition has been eliminated, any rich person that threatens to stand against him or funds an opposition party ends up with a long jail sentence for 'tax evasion'. The only parties that are allowed candidates are those that stand no chance of winning. Yanukovych was trying to do the same in the Ukraine, hence the jailing of Yulia Tymoshenko, but he is a greedy, weak, character and far from the brightest bulb in the box and has failed. Putin has now sidelined him by admitting that he has no future as Ukraine's president, he will be used as necessary as a useful fool, eg. the letter at the UN requesting assistance.
Putin is far from a fool and an opportunist and will strike again to his advantage in his quest to rebuild a Russian empire. He now knows that the west will do little against him so anything like unrest in the Baltic countries he will try to take advantage of.
Putins weakness is the economy as improved living standards in the cities have kept the population reasonably content. Like the other BRIC nations and other developing countries, $1T of US QE per year has made many investors, invest in these countries chasing a better return that they can get in Western countries. This is now changing due to the US tapering with money now returning to the US where bond yields have improved and investors not wanting to lose money from currency depreciation. India, Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey have all had to support their currencies. Russia had to do the same on Monday with $10bn of support for the Ruble and a 1.5% interest rate rise.
Russia with its gas wars in 2006 and 2009 is seen as an unreliable supplier which is why the EU has gone from about 45% of gas being supplied by Russia to about 28% and this will continue to drop. US gas prices have been so low over the last few years, due to them having no LPG export facilities this is about to change with a $1.5bn investment in Texas about to go online. Over the last 5 years we have gone from tight oil towards a small glut, which is why prices have been drifting down and this trend is likely to continue, which will affect the Russian economy. In the run up to the 2016 Russian presidential election this may make Putin even more dangerous if they are having economic problems and there is nothing like a bit of land grabbing to boost your popularity.
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As for China, her interests lay in the West, not the Russian Federation, with global trade as the carrot that was never the situation in 1938, or during the Cold War. :)
That's true to a certain extent, but the one thing that China lacks are natural resources, which Russia has in abundance. China looks all ways. ;)