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[cem_devecioglu]

"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..

I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..

[Rods2]

So it looks as though Crimea is going to join itself with the Russian Federation.

The Crimean MP's have democratically voted to go down that route, with some form of referendum being undertaken for the people of Crimea over the next two weeks and Russia being asked to approve such a move.

Probably the best thing that could happen in the circumstances and will hopefully silence the western powers.

I wonder about that, when their territory is occupied by Russia and possibly Crimean MP's worry about disappearing in the night if they go against Uncle Vlad.   

They should set the referendum after the Ukrainian elections in May so the people of Crimea can have a proper idea of what the future of Ukraine might look like and they can have a national conversation about the future of their country. So a referendum in a years time when the dust has settled, under international supervision/observation and with sensible debate would be democratic.  A snap referendum under the barrels of Russian guns is not democracy in my opinion! 

I was no fan of Tony Blairs government, but the decision to upgrade our hunter/killer subs and to build the 2 new aircraft carriers might yet prove to be wise. Nobody wants war but history tells us that appeasing territory hungry bullies just dosn't work! 

Quite agree. Will the ethic Tartars, who Crimea really belongs to be forced out again?

Putin has obviously been reading up on Hitler as he was keen on these sort of Plebsides under the threat of a gun barrel.

I think the most important lesson for any country is never ever, ever give up weapon systems, especially nuclear weapons on the basis of a useless piece of toilet paper signed by any Western power guaranteeing territorial integrity.

It will be interesting to see if Crimeans think it was a good idea in a year or two to join Russia, when they find how restricted media freedom and their human rights are compared to Ukraine. There has been a protest today by feminists in Crimea, who have all been arrested jointly by the police and Russian troops.

Several Ukrainian organizations that represent ethnic Russian and the Jewish populations have written to Putin today telling him that there is no ethnic tensions or discrimination against them in Ukraine with the Jewish organisation pointing out that is unlike Russia where anti-semitic activity against jews has increased over the last 12 months. Oops!

Putin with his public lies to justify his unjustifiable actions might fool some of the Russian population, but not the rest of the world. No wonder Merkel has questioned whether he is in touch with reality!

With the weak response with Germany putting trade before any sort of measures against Russia, who is next on Putins list? Like Ukraine, in previous comments he considers the three Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania as Russian territory that should be returned to the fold and he has in the past issued Russian passports to ethnic Russians in these territories in times of tension, which is what they have done in all land grabs so far using the pretext of protecting Russian citizens.

What has happened in Ukraine and the West's weak disunited response has definitely strengthened Putin's hand and made the world a much more dangerous place. Major wars are generally started by dictators especially appeased dictators, but the good news is that they are generally won by democracies. But with obviously lots of bad stuff in between, which may have been avoided with a more robust response.

It is interesting that Russia's ally China are not backing them.

[Rods2]

"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..

I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..

Out of context quote from FSB (formally KGB) intercept. I would suggest you read the complete quotation by the Estonian minister.

[Sir Tigger KC]

It is interesting that Russia's ally China are not backing them.

No but they havn't condemned Russia's actions either.  The Chinese are sat quietly watching and listening to see how this pans out, as they have their own territorial ambitions in the South China Sea (disputes with The Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia), East China Sea (Japan) and Taiwan. 

[05omegav6]

No wonder I am never quite sure if I am to the left of centre or hard right wing!

Nevermind Lizzie, no matter which way you turn onto the political merry-go-round , if you go far enough, you'll always wind up where you started

[Sir Tigger KC]

No wonder I am never quite sure if I am to the left of centre or hard right wing!

Nevermind Lizzie, no matter which way you turn onto the political merry-go-round , if you go far enough, you'll always wind up where you started

Lizzie's probably at that extreme point where left and right meet!   

[cem_devecioglu]

"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..

I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..

Out of context quote from FSB (formally KGB) intercept. I would suggest you read the complete quotation by the Estonian minister.

I would be pleased if you share the complete quotation

[Lizzie_Zoom]

No wonder I am never quite sure if I am to the left of centre or hard right wing!

Nevermind Lizzie, no matter which way you turn onto the political merry-go-round , if you go far enough, you'll always wind up where you started

Lizzie's probably at that extreme point where left and right meet!   

You're both so right!

[Rods2]

"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..

I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..

Out of context quote from FSB (formally KGB) intercept. I would suggest you read the complete quotation by the Estonian minister.

I would be pleased if you share the complete quotation

In the leaked audio, Paet, speaking in imperfect English, says a doctor identified only as Olga had told him on a visit to Kiev that snipers may have come from the opposition.

'The same Olga told that, well, all the evidence shows that people who were killed by snipers from both sides among policemen and then people from the street,' Paet says.
 
So that there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition,' he said, referring to the former opposition to deposed President Viktor Yanukovich.

He added that Ukrainians do not trust the Maidan leaders as all the opposition politicians have a 'dirty past'.

In a statement, the Estonian government denied Paet viewed the opposition as being involved in the sniping.
'Foreign Minister Paet was giving an overview of what he had heard the previous day in Kiev and expressed concern over the situation on the ground,' it said.

'We reject the claim that Paet was giving an assessment of the opposition's involvement in the violence.

[cem_devecioglu]

"snipers are from the coalition and they dont want to investigate" says estonia minister during a phone call..

I can easily say, thats the gladio film that we have been watching for long years..

Out of context quote from FSB (formally KGB) intercept. I would suggest you read the complete quotation by the Estonian minister.

I would be pleased if you share the complete quotation

In the leaked audio, Paet, speaking in imperfect English, says a doctor identified only as Olga had told him on a visit to Kiev that snipers may have come from the opposition.

'The same Olga told that, well, all the evidence shows that people who were killed by snipers from both sides among policemen and then people from the street,' Paet says.
 
So that there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition,' he said, referring to the former opposition to deposed President Viktor Yanukovich.

He added that Ukrainians do not trust the Maidan leaders as all the opposition politicians have a 'dirty past'.

In a statement, the Estonian government denied Paet viewed the opposition as being involved in the sniping.
'Foreign Minister Paet was giving an overview of what he had heard the previous day in Kiev and expressed concern over the situation on the ground,' it said.

'We reject the claim that Paet was giving an assessment of the opposition's involvement in the violence.

do you really think that officials will accept that officially

Rods, every one knows who are behind the scenes.. believe me I'm bored of watching the same tape/game over and over..

[Lizzie_Zoom]

So it looks as though Crimea is going to join itself with the Russian Federation.

The Crimean MP's have democratically voted to go down that route, with some form of referendum being undertaken for the people of Crimea over the next two weeks and Russia being asked to approve such a move.

Probably the best thing that could happen in the circumstances and will hopefully silence the western powers.

I wonder about that, when their territory is occupied by Russia and possibly Crimean MP's worry about disappearing in the night if they go against Uncle Vlad.   

They should set the referendum after the Ukrainian elections in May so the people of Crimea can have a proper idea of what the future of Ukraine might look like and they can have a national conversation about the future of their country. So a referendum in a years time when the dust has settled, under international supervision/observation and with sensible debate would be democratic.  A snap referendum under the barrels of Russian guns is not democracy in my opinion! 

I was no fan of Tony Blairs government, but the decision to upgrade our hunter/killer subs and to build the 2 new aircraft carriers might yet prove to be wise. Nobody wants war but history tells us that appeasing territory hungry bullies just dosn't work! 

Putin has obviously been reading up on Hitler as he was keen on these sort of Plebsides under the threat of a gun barrel.

I think the most important lesson for any country is never ever, ever give up weapon systems, especially nuclear weapons on the basis of a useless piece of toilet paper signed by any Western power guaranteeing territorial integrity.

It will be interesting to see if Crimeans think it was a good idea in a year or two to join Russia, when they find how restricted media freedom and their human rights are compared to Ukraine. There has been a protest today by feminists in Crimea, who have all been arrested jointly by the police and Russian troops.

Several Ukrainian organizations that represent ethnic Russian and the Jewish populations have written to Putin today telling him that there is no ethnic tensions or discrimination against them in Ukraine with the Jewish organisation pointing out that is unlike Russia where anti-semitic activity against jews has increased over the last 12 months. Oops!

Putin with his public lies to justify his unjustifiable actions might fool some of the Russian population, but not the rest of the world. No wonder Merkel has questioned whether he is in touch with reality!

What has happened in Ukraine and the West's weak disunited response has definitely strengthened Putin's hand and made the world a much more dangerous place. Major wars are generally started by dictators especially appeased dictators, but the good news is that they are generally won by democracies. But with obviously lots of bad stuff in between, which may have been avoided with a more robust response.

It is interesting that Russia's ally China are not backing them.

Russia is far from being in the position that Hitler and the Nazi's were in during the late 1930s, so there should be no comparison with that dictator and the current situation in Crimea. The closest comparison is Hitler's march, that was welcomed, into Austria and so joining two German speaking people's. Russia is not economically, industrially, or even militarily (being only at apparently 82% strength, with just 772k paid troops, as opposed to unpaid conscripts) in a position to mount a war on the scale Hitler did from Poland onwards. Putin also has a large proportion of Russians that are democratically spoken with an active opposition, which Hitler did not have to contend with as by 1938 he had silenced them all, with a people then keen to take over countries and territories that "belonged" to Germany.

The Western powers were limited in what they could do in 1938, as indeed they are now. Do you mobilize your military forces and create a far bigger conflict, as in 1914, with now in 2014 the added dimension of nuclear conflict that would result in MAD, or do you jaw, jaw and jaw again until a resolution can be determined that suits all parties? This is what is happening now and it is foolish, if not plainly naive, to think this is an easy task.

No, pieces of paper, no matter how important they seemed at the time, have proved throughout history to be utterly worthless, sometimes very destructive, and then forgotten almost as soon as the ink has dried, with politics doing what it does best; distort the truth and ensure the authors wishes are fulfilled!  The West cannot be expected to come up with answers to the Ukraine crisis, no more than it can in the case of the Middle East or North Africa. A series of compromises, along with stick and carrot dialogue, now needs to happen. But, in the end the combined power of the western allies in both democratic, diplomatic, and military terms can today be applied in a form not possible in 1938.

As for China, her interests lay in the West, not the Russian Federation, with global trade as the carrot that was never the situation in 1938, or during the Cold War.

[Rods2]

I'm not suggesting that Putin is about to start WWIII, Russia and the US are always very careful to avoid a direct conflict and quite rightly so, but I think there could have been a much more robust response from the west, which is short of any military intervention. What we have seen in the past is indirect military support for both sides like in the Arab / Israeli wars and Afghanistan.

Russia is effectively a one party state, all potential opposition has been eliminated, any rich person that threatens to stand against him or funds an opposition party ends up with a long jail sentence for 'tax evasion'. The only parties that are allowed candidates are those that stand no chance of winning. Yanukovych was trying to do the same in the Ukraine, hence the jailing of Yulia Tymoshenko, but he is a greedy, weak, character and far from the brightest bulb in the box and has failed. Putin has now sidelined him by admitting that he has no future as Ukraine's president, he will be used as necessary as a useful fool, eg. the letter at the UN requesting assistance.

Putin is far from a fool and an opportunist and will strike again to his advantage in his quest to rebuild a Russian empire. He now knows that the west will do little against him so anything like unrest in the Baltic countries he will try to take advantage of.

Putins weakness is the economy as improved living standards in the cities have kept the population reasonably content. Like the other BRIC nations and other developing countries, $1T of US QE per year has made many investors, invest in these countries chasing a better return that they can get in Western countries. This is now changing due to the US tapering with money now returning to the US where bond yields have improved and investors not wanting to lose money from currency depreciation. India, Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey have all had to support their currencies. Russia had to do the same on Monday with $10bn of support for the Ruble and a 1.5% interest rate rise.

Russia with its gas wars in 2006 and 2009 is seen as an unreliable supplier which is why the EU has gone from about 45% of gas being supplied by Russia to about 28% and this will continue to drop. US gas prices have been so low over the last few years, due to them having no LPG export facilities this is about to change with a $1.5bn investment in Texas about to go online. Over the last 5 years we have gone from tight oil towards a small glut, which is why prices have been drifting down and this trend is likely to continue, which will affect the Russian economy. In the run up to the 2016 Russian presidential election this may make Putin even more dangerous if they are having economic problems and there is nothing like a bit of land grabbing to boost your popularity.

[Sir Tigger KC]

As for China, her interests lay in the West, not the Russian Federation, with global trade as the carrot that was never the situation in 1938, or during the Cold War.

That's true to a certain extent, but the one thing that China lacks are natural resources, which Russia has in abundance.  China looks all ways.