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[Varche]

Not wanting to put a damper on life, but are we heading for some version of WW3?

The reason for asking is that I cannot see how else the current financial mess will be resolved. Viz a viz. Eurozone debt/breakup, Uk debt, recession. Chinese power house is slowing because the drones in Europe and the US cannot afford to buy their stuff. It all seems to me to balanced on a knife edge.

The recovery is all paper thin and sadly relies on Spain for a large part. Money markets don't believe their story and so are lending at the ridiculous and unsustainable repayment level of 7.23% despite our PM dramatically changing tack and not raising taxes. Now Brussels bids "raise VAT to 21%, cut public spending etc etc. And there is more bad news due out of Spain. Three Regions (small countries in effect) have massive debt. Valencia 18billion (double these figures for the truth). Then Catalunia and Andalucia. All three need a bailout. They haven't the money to pay steet lighting and staff wages.

Now a war would sort all that stuff out admittedly with loss of human life. Cause? Well as I see it there are plenty. Syria? Iran? (Straits of Hormuz ship a quarter of the worlds oil). The Americans are there already in BIG numbers. The Israelis would love to get in now and sort out the Iranians. They have the ear of the US. Al' Qaeda London Games? Pakistan.

Hopefully I have just had too much sun!

 

[Omegatoy]

yep the sun is exceptional this year here too, so i hope it is that!
trouble is you could be startlingly close to the truth!

[cem_devecioglu]

may be limited than a global one but will effect whole world .. and yes there will be

[Rods2]

We will stay out of Syria, due to it being in the Russian zone of influence and a base for their Mediterranean fleet. Russia, China and the US always avoid direct conflict to make sure the obvious MAD situation does not occur.

Iran will be where it happens as they will have a viable nuclear device within two years. Neither the US or the Israelis will allow that to happen. If they do then they will attempt to use it, which will result in a pretty much one sided nuclear exchange, by Israel and probably the US, which is bad news for humanity and Iran's population, with many of the younger generation against this oppressive dictatorship (dissidents are ruthlessly destroyed) anyway.

With Syria there is a big problem of where their chemical and biological weapons are stored. They may yet be used by Assad, but if they fall into other hands, who knows? Syria supports Iran and Hezbollah who in turn support Pakistan, Afghanistan and Al Qaeda. While Al Qaeda hate the Syrian's Assad and may well have been behind the recent suicide bombing of senior personnel. So anybodies guess what will happen here?

So will Assad decide to go out with a bang, or will they fall into the wrong hands, a chemical or biological device in London over the next three weeks with the Olympic games would create the sort of headlines terrorist like. I'm sure MI5 and MI6 are very aware of this and many other terrorist threats and are very active in preventing any terrorism at the games.

The UK has a bad habit of running down our armed forces, just before they are need in a big way again.  Although some good news is that we took delivery of our first test F-35B this week. Wehave two more on order and will order another one next year.  The good news is that production should ramp up by Lockheed Martin and BAE by 2015 to producing one a day as we may need some quick deliveries.  The current US in service date is 2016.

We are living in dangerous times. 

Spain and the Spaniards have a choice, keep living the illusion by clinging onto the vanity project the Euro, where they benefited from cheap money and EU development funds from joining the Euro by building airports they don't use, roads they don't need and houses they can't sell as part of a big construction bubble. They had 10 years of partying and now they have run out of drink and are going through a 10 year plus hangover. The paracetamol is default and exiting the Euro as this will cure what will otherwise be in theory a 10 to 20 year depression (except they can't stay solvent that long) and they will get to keep a democratic system of Government. 

The PIIGS will bankrupt Germany if she is stupid enough to let them, now with borrowing approaching €1.3tn, when the PIIGS along with France and possibly Belgium exit the Euro, what happens when Germany asks what will probably be €2tn+ by then back and they say no, will it be decided by normal dispute resolution apparatus or by a more direct method? Who knows? 

My suggestion would be we sit back and let Europe sort it out themselves this time, after all we are all still paying that temporary tax to fund the Napoleonic Wars. Income Tax! 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Cheer up lads! It might not happen... 

[cem_devecioglu]

1.We will stay out of Syria, due to it being in the Russian zone of influence and a base for their Mediterranean fleet. Russia, China and the US always avoid direct conflict to make sure the obvious MAD situation does not occur.

2.Iran will be where it happens as they will have a viable nuclear device within two years. Neither the US or the Israelis will allow that to happen. If they do then they will attempt to use it, which will result in a pretty much one sided nuclear exchange, by Israel and probably the US, which is bad news for humanity and Iran's population, with many of the younger generation against this oppressive dictatorship (dissidents are ruthlessly destroyed) anyway.

3.With Syria there is a big problem of where their chemical and biological weapons are stored. They may yet be used by Assad, but if they fall into other hands, who knows? Syria supports Iran and Hezbollah who in turn support Pakistan, Afghanistan and Al Qaeda. While Al Qaeda hate the Syrian's Assad and may well have been behind the recent suicide bombing of senior personnel. So anybodies guess what will happen here?

So will Assad decide to go out with a bang, or will they fall into the wrong hands, a chemical or biological device in London over the next three weeks with the Olympic games would create the sort of headlines terrorist like. I'm sure MI5 and MI6 are very aware of this and many other terrorist threats and are very active in preventing any terrorism at the games.

The UK has a bad habit of running down our armed forces, just before they are need in a big way again.  Although some good news is that we took delivery of our first test F-35B this week. Wehave two more on order and will order another one next year.  The good news is that production should ramp up by Lockheed Martin and BAE by 2015 to producing one a day as we may need some quick deliveries.  The current US in service date is 2016.

We are living in dangerous times. 

Spain and the Spaniards have a choice, keep living the illusion by clinging onto the vanity project the Euro, where they benefited from cheap money and EU development funds from joining the Euro by building airports they don't use, roads they don't need and houses they can't sell as part of a big construction bubble. They had 10 years of partying and now they have run out of drink and are going through a 10 year plus hangover. The paracetamol is default and exiting the Euro as this will cure what will otherwise be in theory a 10 to 20 year depression (except they can't stay solvent that long) and they will get to keep a democratic system of Government. 

The PIIGS will bankrupt Germany if she is stupid enough to let them, now with borrowing approaching €1.3tn, when the PIIGS along with France and possibly Belgium exit the Euro, what happens when Germany asks what will probably be €2tn+ by then back and they say no, will it be decided by normal dispute resolution apparatus or by a more direct method? Who knows? 

My suggestion would be we sit back and let Europe sort it out themselves this time, after all we are all still paying that temporary tax to fund the Napoleonic Wars. Income Tax! 

1. you cant.. even we cant.. now here is some bad news for you.. as the info is secretish (cant go in detail)  , border area both in and out is full of "workers"    and the supported lowlifes collected from here and there (trust me you wont sit on the same table and even drink water with them) are extremely dangerous and cause trouble here..   you may remember the group who slaughtered the previous one .. they were better boys
 
and yes upto now, a direct conflict was avoided but I doubt for how long
 
 
2. yes.. iran is a dark dictatorship which must be changed..  but the methods tried in other middle east countries  didnt work there..  but imo the solution is not to provoke and threat them to use whatever they have..
 
3. I think many of us will remember the chemical biological weapons of saddam.. but finally even the authorities admit there were none..   so cant stop myself thinking "here we go again"
 
here all media and tv news are about syria ..  and I'm really fed up with it..  nearly all of them are so one sided that I even dont listen/read.. and for the latest bombing event.. there is not such a thing that your terror is bad , ours is good..
 
what I cant understand is the group in the camps are no different than the talibans that nato fight.. and personally cant see any difference

[Rods2]

One mans freedom fighter in another mans terrorist. It depends which side you are on. 

I suspect democracy in the Arab Spring countries will be used to just consolidate a different dictatorship. The Middle East seems to prefer this sort of Government. Bad if you are an individual who likes to express opions. 

I fear that the Arab Spring countries will be much more like Iran and that minority religions will be persecuted and forced to leave those countries. 

[cem_devecioglu]

Rods, my political views is not simply just black and white.. they are mostly based on realities , first priority  being the humanity, moral values  then economic facts.. and finally religious values, the last ..  although my education is mostly based on western systems , I'm well aware of how pre/post capitalist - global capitalist- (or as some say corporatist) system abuses big lands and masses regardless of country (and this may be even UK or some western country)  and what this system have done in the past historically and the results that we still suffer today.. so my ears are deaf to ready feed biased media and biased politicians.. also must state that there is no good terrorist whatever its side is..
 
may be its a good example that how talibans/islamic terrorists were supported and fed by west in the past .. and now they become the threat.. west must understand, religion is an extremely dangerous field to abuse..   
 
 

[cem_devecioglu]

this is from today
http://fotogaleri.gazetevatan.com/suriyeli-siginmacilar-isyan-etti-/23316/1/Haber
 
syrian rebels fight (and later gunfight) with local security (in our lands) and take a group of policeman as hostage.. and finally army come and free them  

[Rods2]

I don't consider terrorist acceptable in a democracy or accept under any circumstances the attacking of civilians. Where I live is a military area in the early 1970's there were several IRA attacks in the area which included the killing of a school friend's mother, where she was a cleaner in one of the bombed buildings

Uprisings and revolutions are bad as you don't know what you are going to end up with. I think the record by The Who, "Won't get fooled again" puts it quite well. People that lead uprisings and revolutions are normally the last sort of people you want in positions of power. Hitler, Stalin, Saddam Hussein and Gadaffi being good examples of despots who have made it to the top in this way.

In a non-democratic country with state run security organizations that regularly imprison, torture and kill anybody that does not agree or conform to their views, if these people target military installations and personal are they still terrorists in your eyes or freedom fighters?

When you get a power vacuum or disconnect groups at the top or bottom of society then you can get some very dangerous situations. In the 1970's the UK was in a bad way and was being brought to their economic knees by politically motivated trade unions. The leadership could manipulate their members and pretty much do what they wanted. Margret Thatcher's reforms brought in strict rules for strike action including making it illegal to strike without a secret ballot of their members of which there had to be a majority in favour. This cured the disconnect between the leaders and members.

There are three major disconnects in Western Europe at the moment. Company directors pay and their accountability to shareholders, although this is currently being addressed to a degree in the UK, but there is still more to do. An almost total disconnect between voters and politicians, where they can say anything and have a complete unaccountable sheet of lies for their manifesto to gain votes and when they win power, they do what they like for the next 5 years. This need reforming, but it is not even discussed, let alone any likely hood of reform.

The final and largest disconnect is the EU, who's leadership is accountable to nobody including to each other. In most presidential / Government systems, the Government drafts and votes for new laws and the president rubber stamps them. In the EU the President with his Council of Ministers define and decide on Laws and they are then rubber stamped by the EU Parliament. Where the EU is not carrying the people and all referendums are repeated until the electorate give the right result, the end will be the same as the USSR. I just hope it is a relatively peaceful transition like that was. But with the Euro situation, I fear it is not going to be that straight forward.

[Varche]

I don't consider terrorist acceptable in a democracy or accept under any circumstances the attacking of civilians. Where I live is a military area in the early 1970's there were several IRA attacks in the area which included the killing of a school friend's mother, where she was a cleaner in one of the bombed buildings

Uprisings and revolutions are bad as you don't know what you are going to end up with. I think the record by The Who, "Won't get fooled again" puts it quite well. People that lead uprisings and revolutions are normally the last sort of people you want in positions of power. Hitler, Stalin, Saddam Hussein and Gadaffi being good examples of despots who have made it to the top in this way.

In a non-democratic country with state run security organizations that regularly imprison, torture and kill anybody that does not agree or conform to their views, if these people target military installations and personal are they still terrorists in your eyes or freedom fighters?

When you get a power vacuum or disconnect groups at the top or bottom of society then you can get some very dangerous situations. In the 1970's the UK was in a bad way and was being brought to their economic knees by politically motivated trade unions. The leadership could manipulate their members and pretty much do what they wanted. Margret Thatcher's reforms brought in strict rules for strike action including making it illegal to strike without a secret ballot of their members of which there had to be a majority in favour. This cured the disconnect between the leaders and members.

There are three major disconnects in Western Europe at the moment. Company directors pay and their accountability to shareholders, although this is currently being addressed to a degree in the UK, but there is still more to do. An almost total disconnect between voters and politicians, where they can say anything and have a complete unaccountable sheet of lies for their manifesto to gain votes and when they win power, they do what they like for the next 5 years. This need reforming, but it is not even discussed, let alone any likely hood of reform.

The final and largest disconnect is the EU, who's leadership is accountable to nobody including to each other. In most presidential / Government systems, the Government drafts and votes for new laws and the president rubber stamps them. In the EU the President with his Council of Ministers define and decide on Laws and they are then rubber stamped by the EU Parliament. Where the EU is not carrying the people and all referendums are repeated until the electorate give the right result, the end will be the same as the USSR. I just hope it is a relatively peaceful transition like that was. But with the Euro situation, I fear it is not going to be that straight forward.

The first two certainly apply to Spain as well as other W. Europe countries. There is a backlash here too over CEO pay which has lept upwards whilst company performance has gone the other way. As to the elected party. Here the PP (Conservatives) got in. Their only manifesto item was " we won't raise taxes" Six months in they have raised taxes and subjugated the populace to the will of Brussels. They got in because the populace were fed up of the last government (Labour). Sound familiar?

[cem_devecioglu]

may well worth reading
 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/12/syrian-opposition-doing-the-talking

[cem_devecioglu]

and an "interesting" organization
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxMayaeHd6I&feature=related
 
 

[cem_devecioglu]

and result
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrdVqgt0Dwk

[cem_devecioglu]

and a more interesting subject banking 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9pOQXxuR54&feature=related