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Author Topic: Snow storms in america  (Read 7289 times)

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Rods2

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #15 on: 28 December 2012, 20:39:21 »

today at 20 pm I saw 14 celcius ??? in Omega mid..I didnt trust and called a friend ...he said its ok..  :o
 
its 28 december and 14 celcius :o :o  2 weeks ago it was -5 in daytime.. if this weather is normal I'm a prophet ;D

But how do you or me really define "normal" Cem?

The Earth has gone through climatic cycles since time began (well once there was an atmosphere and the volcano's had stopped erupting with life evolving) and we are going through another change.  So, yes Turkey's extreme temperature range is now normal, as it is in fact in the UK and elsewhere.  We just have to live with it. ;) ;)

Lizzie, some idiots changed/played with data.. and some tried to abuse weather change..  but this doesnt mean nothing happened.. trust me I know what I'm talking about.. this temperature belongs to april or even may.. not december.. besides if some scientists spending multi millions just to stop earth heating,  I would take this serious.. as far as I see seasonal temperature fluctuations are more severe to say the least.. and I wont be the one who puts the head in the sand ;D

I understand and agree with what you say Cem, but the Earth's climate is going through a natural change and there is nothing man can do about it.  What will be will be! ;D ;D ;)

I am not that sure Lizzie.. as far as I know there was no big explosion from sun in last months.. besides if there was magnetic anomalies it  would be recorded and seen imo..

Rip out all gas boilers and go back to burning coal....back to the good ol' days i reckon  :y ;D

in any case natural gas wont las long.. then we will start to burn whatever we find ;D

India's first commercial Thorium power station goes live in 2013. A few more years of tweeking, while they build their next 5 or 6, means they will be selling the technology and building power stations all round the world where there is enough Thorium for 1000's of years at current and future energy consumption levels. Unfortunately, third world wannbe countries like the UK are unlikely to want them (against the yogurt knitting, tree huggers, religion) and UK politicians don't do contentious decisions, they just commission a report to be published after the next election.  ::) :o :o :o :o
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US Fracking and Saudi Arabia defending its market share = The good news of an oil glut, lower and lower prices for us and squeaky bum time for Putin!

Nickbat

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #16 on: 28 December 2012, 20:44:51 »

Cem, your post prompted me to look through some of the old UK records. When you think about it, there is no reason to suggest that UK weather is more or less consistent than the weather you experience over there. Yes, we live on an island, but it is the Atlantic systems/jetsteams that drive Europe's weather patterns, so you can bet your boots that Turkey has had just as colourful a weather history.

Here's what I trawled up:

1658/59 (winter): Possibly a very mild (and perhaps windy?) winter across England. Some reports suggest that January in particular was stormy, which would tie in with a highly zonal type, enhanced westerly jetstream and frequent cyclonic disturbances moving in off the North Atlantic.

1660 (November & December): Significant flooding is recorded in the Thames Valley on the 11th November(OS); taken together with the entry below (re: winter warmth), this implies a markedly zonal type (or high NAOI), with the associated mean jet translated far enough south to propel cyclonic disturbances across southern Britain in quick succession. [What we have this week in the UK]
Based on contemporary reports from London [Pepys], Yorkshire & Edinburgh, it seems as if the month of December 1660 was often windy/stormy; [this unsettled/zonal weather possibly extended into early January 1661, which would tie in with the remarks at note above]. In particular, around the 8th December(OSP), from late afternoon through the night, high winds caused considerable damage to thatch, windmills, trees etc., across the north of England at least.

1660/61 (winter): A mild winter - using the (early) CET record (nearest whole degC only), the average comes out at 5degC, or roughly one-and-a-quarter C above the all-series mean. Pepys mentions in late January that there had been a general lack of cold weather, and that it was 'dusty' (implying a warm & dry winter), with plants well ahead for the season.

1661/62 (early to mid winter): A mild winter (second one in a row), and to judge by some accounts (see below), a wet one too (unlike the previous winter across the southeast of Britain - it was apparently wet over north & west Britain). Using the CET record (to nearest degC only at this early stage), the DJF mean CET was 5.7degC, or roughly 2C above the all-series average.
According to Evelyn .. "there having falln so greate raine without any frost or seasonable cold ..."; suggests mild, cyclonic, wet & windy regime much of the winter until at least the middle of January (1662). Reported at the time as … "like May or June".

Then, we had oranges in Hackney (E. London): On 5th July, 1666(OS), Pepys writes: "extremely hot ... oranges ripening in the open at Hackney".

I wonder if they were all wandering around saying "This ain't normal"!

Well, if they did, they needn't have worried too much as, just 21 years later, the winter brought this:
 
The 15th December 1683 saw the onset of a great frost in England & central Europe: Thames frozen down to London Bridge by 2nd January 1684, with booths on the ice by 27th January and for more than a fortnight thereafter - coaches were observed on the ice and the royal court (King Charles II) visited the fair held on the frozen Thames. Other rivers across Britain were so affected, e.g., the Tees in NE England - they didn't get the attention of the Thames! Many birds perished. This great frost was claimed to be the longest on record; the Thames in London was completely frozen for about two months and the ice was reported to be 11 inches (circa 28 cm) thick. Sea ice was reported along the coasts of SE England and many harbours could not be used due to ice: according to some sources, ice formed for a time between Dover & Calais, with the two sides ' joined together '! Severe problems for shipping accessing such ports on either side of the North Sea. Near Manchester, the ground was frozen to a depth of 27 inches and in Somerset to more than 4 feet. The winter was 'incredibly severe' according to John Evelyn and a Frost Fair was held on the ice. "No vessels could stir out or come in while a thick fog occurred towards the end of January which made it difficult to see across the streets". (This latter due to warm advection no doubt, as a thaw set in over snow/ice covered surfaces).
HH Lamb has constructed a tentative mean seasonal pressure pattern with High pressure in the Faeroes area, an arctic northerly from Spitzbergen to the Baltic, thence an anticyclonic east or northeasterly over NW Europe / British Isles. See also 1739/40; 1813/14 and 1962/63.

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm

The point I'm making is that there is no "normal", merely average. The weather systems are so chaotic that anomalies logically appear with high frequency. As Lizzie rightly points out, there's nothing we can do about it and, in any event, warm is better than cold.  :y
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Abiton

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #17 on: 28 December 2012, 20:52:05 »

If one stops thinking about temperature, and considers extremes of precipitation and strength/frequency of storms instead, I wonder if the evidence for (manmade) climate change suddenly looks much more convincing.

Best regards,

Pete

I may not be posting much more, the Thames is coming to get me.  ;D
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Nickbat

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #18 on: 28 December 2012, 20:58:01 »

If one stops thinking about temperature, and considers extremes of precipitation and strength/frequency of storms instead, I wonder if the evidence for (manmade) climate change suddenly looks much more convincing.

Best regards,

Pete

I may not be posting much more, the Thames is coming to get me.  ;D

Not to me, at least. Take a look at the link I posted and read about the extreme weather events which have beset our country in the past. Note, also, that in days gone by there was no 24/7 reporting. We're inundated with news stories that would never have seen the light of day back then. People just got on with life. ;)
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cem_devecioglu

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #19 on: 28 December 2012, 20:58:55 »

Nick I just want to remind one point.. checking history is ok, but we are talking about now.. there were no serious fossil fuel consumption in those times except our ancestors burning smelly horse/cow sh*t ;D  but now there is a "bit" difference.. world population is many x times bigger and energy consumption and co2 release may be xxxxxx.... times more..
 
and I will tell you what.. this serious temperature fluctuations will kill me long before any disaster happens anyway..  I cant adaptate 20-25 celcius change in few days..
 
 
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cem_devecioglu

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #20 on: 28 December 2012, 21:02:39 »

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
 
Nick I think you will accept this organization as serious!
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Abiton

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #21 on: 28 December 2012, 21:04:09 »

If one stops thinking about temperature, and considers extremes of precipitation and strength/frequency of storms instead, I wonder if the evidence for (manmade) climate change suddenly looks much more convincing.

Best regards,

Pete

I may not be posting much more, the Thames is coming to get me.  ;D

Not to me, at least. Take a look at the link I posted and read about the extreme weather events which have beset our country in the past. Note, also, that in days gone by there was no 24/7 reporting. We're inundated with news stories that would never have seen the light of day back then. People just got on with life. ;)

I'll have a look tomorrow, cheers.  (If I can rig up wifi on my ark  :y)

« Last Edit: 28 December 2012, 21:10:02 by Abiton »
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ozzycat

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #22 on: 29 December 2012, 01:51:36 »

if you think about it the realy cold winters used to kill all the nasty bugs off these warm winters let them thrive
thats why we get thigs like the sicnessbug norro virus all ways in winter  [scuse spelling]
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omega3000

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #23 on: 29 December 2012, 07:09:21 »

When america gets snow normally we get it 2 weeks later , the amount of rain we have got since they declared a drought here in the summer has been unreal . The week we did see the sun it was overpowering and humid , nothing like the summers of years ago when it was hot but not overpowering for weeks and weeks on end  :) Cars in the uk dont need air con anymore  ;D
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Andy B

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #24 on: 29 December 2012, 09:04:12 »

..... the amount of rain we have got since  .... Cars in the uk dont need air con anymore  ;D

Keeps my windows condensation free  ;)
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omega3000

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #25 on: 29 December 2012, 09:25:28 »

..... the amount of rain we have got since  .... Cars in the uk dont need air con anymore  ;D

Keeps my windows condensation free ;)

Not mine  :'( No air con means opening the rear windows to get rid of the condensation in winter .. works pretty good though  :)
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STMO123

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #26 on: 29 December 2012, 10:36:14 »

Whatever did we do before aircon?
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omega3000

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #27 on: 29 December 2012, 10:38:20 »

Whatever did we do before aircon?

Use our hands to wind down the windows to let air in  ;D
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biggriffin

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #28 on: 29 December 2012, 10:51:02 »

Iam in the KING Jeremy Clarkson thinking here
 burn the tree hugging leftist do gooders and burn more fuel,  aswell as use more solar panels on all these large warehouse roofs,. Windmil farms are not efficient enough,
. And yes i believe in recycling...
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Hoof'land storeman.

Lizzie_Zoom

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Re: Snow storms in america
« Reply #29 on: 29 December 2012, 15:38:47 »

If one stops thinking about temperature, and considers extremes of precipitation and strength/frequency of storms instead, I wonder if the evidence for (manmade) climate change suddenly looks much more convincing.

Best regards,

Pete

I may not be posting much more, the Thames is coming to get me.  ;D

No, like Nick states I am far from convinced that the weather is being affected by man.  Extending backwards Nick's great research on 17th Century weather changes I would add the following vital information for understanding the very natural change we are experiencing with our weather.

As the historian J.M.Roberts writes in his History Of The World Pelican (1980) Page 22-23. there were four distinct ice ages, each lasting between 50,000 and a 120,000 years apiece. The last one that affected Europe was just 14,000 years ago, and now we are considered to be in a "warm Period". We know that the ice sheet for the last ice age reached what is now central London.  After that the climate warmed to the extent that what we now consider African wild life roamed at least southern England, with grapes, oranges, and other fruits of warmer climates growing readily.

We fast forward now to a later age when climatic change was causing real concern, in the 13th and 14th centuries. Prestwich, M. in his book Plantagenet England Clarendon Press (2005) Page 4 and 6. writes of the chronicles that record "England appears to have been prone to very variable and sometimes extreme weather conditions". In the 1250s the St.Albans chronicler Matthew Paris noted each year "brought problems".

In May 1251 a violent thunderstorm brought down 35 oaks in Windsor Forest.
January 1252 brought a severe gale that "did much damage".
From April until July 1252 there was a severe drought, followed by a further drought in the Spring and Summer of 1253.
Then there was a period of heavy rains during the Autumn with floods.
In 1254 a "severe frost" began on the 1st January and "did not end" until 12th March.
During the Summer of 1254 there were continuous strong winds for three months.
1255 saw a drought in April.
1256 witnessed a "severe storm" in June "did much damage".
The year 1257 began with floods and from February until May the weather "was very bad".
It was noted as of significance that in 1258 there was "severe cold" from February through to March.
If you are wondering about the evidence of the effects of this weather, well it was recorded the harvest had been "severely damaged", with grain and fodder in short supply. People were forced to sell their flocks and to leave the land uncultivated.  The famine caused "many deaths", with corpses being so numerous they had to be thrown into common pits.

Hard winters were notable at this time, with one chronicler stating particularly that in 1280 there was a hard frost and lying snow for 7 weeks up to the 12th March.  He expressed the interesting and revealing statement "No one could remember such weather".

In 1283 wind and rain for two nights and one day in Lincolnshire "caused many animal deaths" , with extensive flooding after sea defences were breached.

The pattern followed into the 14th century, with the Thames freezing over in the winter of 1309-10.  Appalling weather in 1315 and 1316 was recorded by many chroniclers, with constant rain. This is recorded as being by far the most serious climatic episode , with the rains of "unprecedented" proportion.  Wide spread flooding of low lying areas was not the only problem, as fields "everywhere were turned to mud and topsoil was washed away".   The whole of the late Middle Age period was noted as a period of "climatic deterioration" with lower temperatures and higher rainfall than in the 13th century and earlier. One result of this recorded was the abandonment of cultivation in areas such as Dartmoor, where settlements had been abandoned by 1350. Of course the affects on agriculture were far greater then, and thus numerous poor harvests led to severe suffering for the population of England. Harvests fell by as much as 64% on the yield of 1315.

In summary, after yet another long post by me which I apologise for, you will hopefully understand that severe climatic change is not unusual and completely natural.  The early period of English history that I have roughly covered (I could write a book on it!) added to Nick's excellent summary of later climatic events, hopefully outlines what has happened, and may well indicate what will transpire next with the World's / UK's weather.  In short it will never stay the same, and will challenge mankind for decades / millenium to come.  What man does has nothing to do with it! ;)



« Last Edit: 29 December 2012, 15:43:06 by Lizzie Zoom »
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