Todays update - battery disconnected for an hour, but long term trim stays at -12.5%.
Started (just) and running very rough - this is a cold start and so in open loop, does this mean it is not using MAF / Lamda etc? Getting worse as it runs (30 seconds), so I switch it off before it get warm enough to get to closed loop.

Steve
Sorry - wasn't paying full attention to all the information in front of me.
Long term trims should be (are?) stored in non volatile memory (so they don't get lost when battery disconnected).
If the "wrong" MAF was for a much smaller engine it probably gave a linear reading up to (say) 1/2 of your engines maximum mass flow. After that it couldn't give a larger reading (because it was already at 100%). Your ECU has probably learned that the "wrong" MAF is exaggerating how much air is flowing so has applied -12.5% long term trim to try and compensate. Driving around on small throttle openings is probably OK but any time you open the throttle and get more air than the "wrong" MAF can cope with will mean that the ECU isn't aware that more fuel is required.
Fitting the correct MAF now means that the car is undriveable once it warms up because -12.5% is far too lean. It probable starts OK and runs OK until the engine is warm because of the cold start enrichment

Definitely get Kevin on the case if he is available

I still worry that there may be something that caused the original owner to fit a new (wrong) MAF that hasn't been identified yet. If you are lucky the original fault was correctly identified as being the MAF but incorrectly fixed with the wrong MAF.