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[Entwood]

There is, IMHO, rather a lot of uninformed*, politically motivated*, press led* (delete as appropriate) stupidity being spouted here ...

Just "What" do you want/expect the americans*/australians*/british*/etc* (delete as appropriate) to actually do ??

Invade ?? - An instant recipe for WW3 - and any "plan" to send in troops from ANY country without a full UN mandate would be seen as an invasion by many parties, especially the Russians who are STILL a Major and a  Nuclear Power.

Any attempt to get a UN mandate for the use of armed forces to intervene would simply be blocked by the Russians and the Chinese, and would take weeks of arguing anyway.

Putin has an Agenda.. quite what and why, no one knows, or is sure of. He is clever and ruthless, and knows that, in reality, the "west" is impotent UNLESS AND UNTIL THE WEST WISHES TO DECLARE WAR ON RUSSIA .. because that is what would have to happen ... and the consequences of that are too immense to contemplate.

As for the idea of applying sanctions ... sanctions don't work when the country involved supplies the majority of goods required by other countries ..they might work on an  importer, but if folks want something .. they'll still get it.

[Sir Tigger KC]

This sums up the scum that are terrorising East Ukraine. After killing 295 people: They have fired shots to stop the agreed OSCE observers access to the site and have taken away 38 bodies to an unknown destination. They have asked Russia for help in removing the rest of the bodies. No doubt so they can be sanitised of missile shrapnel before being released.

If they are released...... 

[05omegav6]

There is, IMHO, rather a lot of uninformed*, politically motivated*, press led* (delete as appropriate) stupidity being spouted here ...

Just "What" do you want/expect the americans*/australians*/british*/etc* (delete as appropriate) to actually do ??

Invade ?? - An instant recipe for WW3 - and any "plan" to send in troops from ANY country without a full UN mandate would be seen as an invasion by many parties, especially the Russians who are STILL a Major and a  Nuclear Power.

Any attempt to get a UN mandate for the use of armed forces to intervene would simply be blocked by the Russians and the Chinese, and would take weeks of arguing anyway.

Putin has an Agenda.. quite what and why, no one knows, or is sure of. He is clever and ruthless, and knows that, in reality, the "west" is impotent UNLESS AND UNTIL THE WEST WISHES TO DECLARE WAR ON RUSSIA .. because that is what would have to happen ... and the consequences of that are too immense to contemplate.

As for the idea of applying sanctions ... sanctions don't work when the country involved supplies the majority of goods required by other countries ..they might work on an  importer, but if folks want something .. they'll still get it.

Good point, well presented 

Incidentally, given the apparent lack of order in Eastern Ukraine, is there grounds to put UN Peacekeepers on the ground

[Entwood]

If we do nothing , then we are saying it is alright to shoot down civilian planes. How many more would be acceptable. 5? 10? before anyone does anything.

I can't see why the black box recorders are important. It isn't as though when they rewind it is going to say "look out , incoming buk SAM missile"

No your right, but it does help to rule out anything else, ie lack of Pilots talking to each other about another issue.

Yes, actually quite important... if 777s start falling out of the sky for no apparent reason then everyone needs to know why

The two main focuses in this case are why the aircraft was routed over Ukraine in the first place, and whether eastern European airspace needs reconsidering...

Perhaps the Qatari super hub isn't such a white elephant afterall

If I had a pound for every flight I had been on that flew over a conflict zone I could have retired 20 years ago. I have watched, especially at night, numerous wars/conflicts taking place below me as I transited overhead (usually at around 24,000ft in a C130), it is nothing unusual.

The rebels were not known to have the SA11 (operational to 70,000 ft) but only to have MANPADS (operational to 20,000 ft) so there was, at the time, no reason to limit flights above 32,00 ft, (the bottom end of commercial airline operations) and many, many flights went past without a problem, the route is a main one from Europe to Asia ..

Once again, the press prove that 20-20 hindsight is the worlds best vision .. perhaps one day they'll actually ask a question BEFORE the event .. rather than after it ?

[Sir Tigger KC]

Incidentally, given the apparent lack of order in Eastern Ukraine, is there grounds to put UN Peacekeepers on the ground

I'm sure the Russians would happily provide troops for such a mission! 

Oh hold on, they more or less are anyway! 

[tigers_gonads]

Agree that Nige has hit the nail on the head, again 

I wonder if Ukraine are now regretting giving there nukes away so easy now after pressure from Obama and his chums 

As for where will it all stop, when Putin has his buffer between the west and mother Russia.

Nato already have the Typhoon and other countries aircraft flying patrols over Estonia and iirc, Latvia because Putin started making veiled threats.

Sorry Rod, the eastern part of (what we know as Ukraine) has gone 
Draw a line in the sand by building a nice fence and between the Black Sea and the Baltic and hope Putin doesn't try to force the wests hand because as has been said, it would end up tin foil hat time   

[Varche]

There is, IMHO, rather a lot of uninformed*, politically motivated*, press led* (delete as appropriate) stupidity being spouted here ...

Just "What" do you want/expect the americans*/australians*/british*/etc* (delete as appropriate) to actually do ??

Invade ?? - An instant recipe for WW3 - and any "plan" to send in troops from ANY country without a full UN mandate would be seen as an invasion by many parties, especially the Russians who are STILL a Major and a  Nuclear Power.

Any attempt to get a UN mandate for the use of armed forces to intervene would simply be blocked by the Russians and the Chinese, and would take weeks of arguing anyway.

Putin has an Agenda.. quite what and why, no one knows, or is sure of. He is clever and ruthless, and knows that, in reality, the "west" is impotent UNLESS AND UNTIL THE WEST WISHES TO DECLARE WAR ON RUSSIA .. because that is what would have to happen ... and the consequences of that are too immense to contemplate.

As for the idea of applying sanctions ... sanctions don't work when the country involved supplies the majority of goods required by other countries ..they might work on an  importer, but if folks want something .. they'll still get it.

Well these are fine words. My point is at what point do we the ordinary people say enough is enough. It is quite easy and comfortable to sit back and say someone ought to do something about the KILLING (because that is what it is) in Ukraine/Syria/Egypt/Israel/Palestine/Libya/Africa (delete as appropriate) where is the UN, why don't they do anything? Well you answered that by saying that the UN is toothless.

No one wants another world war but without doing something e.g. more substantial sanctions(The Germans for example) and a show of armed support then in the case of eastern Europe in particular Putin will continue to have his way building his empire. I actually think we can be pretty sure that is what he is doing - the signs are there.

Someone elsewhere said today that anyone wearing a balaclava and carrying a rifle should be a target. Bit strong but what would anyone have said if the West had given five minutes warning before destroying any and all missile kit in Ukraine that could shoot down innocent civilian planes?

[RobG]

[Varche]

 

I have just realised it is gone six so time for a calming drink and some BBQ ribs.

[Shackeng]

As successive British Governments have forgotten their prime duty, Defence of the Realm, we are now impotent to take any individual action, other than nuclear, which is never to be used other than reactively, against a major threat. Also Nato, since the end of the Cold War, has allowed its combined conventional strength - and will - to decline to a level that is frightening in its complacency.

[Rods2]

Disagree that NATO didn't know, they were briefed in the US on the 30th of June.

http://pressimus.com/Interpreter_Mag/press/3455

There have been numerous geo-located pictures of Russian convoys crossing from Russia into Ukraine (including a Russian border guard posting some for a short while on Facebook, before I think he was relocated to Siberia ). This includes several pictures of a medium range Strela-10 in Russian terrorists hands.

There has been a massive open escalation of support for the Russian terrorists with reinforcements of not only numbers, but heavy equipments including T64 Tanks, APC's and SAMS as air superiority is one of the advantages the Ukrainian army has. Since the signing of the agreement EU agreement on the 27th of June and the ending of the ceasefire and the Ukrainian ATO successes, Russia is trying to currently a save a losing situation. In Russia they were initially advertising for ex-military aged up to 40 for fighting in Ukraine, in the last few weeks they have also been looking for tank crews and other mechanised specialists. Although there are GRU undercover troops in Ukraine (no different to special forces in any conflict) they are in the background, with the masked ex-Russian troops the face of the operation along with a few ex-Ukrainian police and Ukrainian gangsters and opportunists.

Most of this information does not appear in the MSM who had largely lost interest in what is happening in Ukraine but does elsewhere. All of the responsible websites like The Interpretor only change something from a possible to a likely when it is independently confirmed and a probably true when confirmed from multiple sources.

Look back over their daily diary for the last few weeks and you will get the picture.

http://www.interpretermag.com/

I agree hindsight is a wonderful thing and I'm sure from what has been said so far, like many aviation tragedies, this one has been caused by a series of events, including inexperienced operators using an old Buk system. I'm sure from what I've seen so far that they did not deliberately target a civilian airline and thought they were shooting down a Ukrainian AN-26, but that is the fog of war. Now Putin is trying to blame the Ukrainian government for fighting against the invasion of their sovereign nation by Russia, after the illegal annexation of Crimea, which of course breaks International laws and treaties that Russia has signed.

Airlines have already rerouted, although I think the treat has receded as there are picture of the Buk systems including one with two missiles missing going back across the Russian border.

Personally, what I am find particularly odious is the Russian claims that it was nothing to do with us, where all of the evidence is pointing in their direction, but this is sadly par for the course as it is part of their propaganda DNA.

I don't think anybody is suggesting NATO troops on the ground as the Nuclear powers have always avoided, quite rightly, direct confrontation, but both side have fought wars against each other by proxy through the supply of training and equipment of the side they support and it does make a difference as we saw with the Russian invasion in Afghanistan.

The MH-17 airline tragedy highlights the dangers of when things go wrong and through miscalculation escalate out of control.  This is why I'm all for clipping Putin's wings in ways that will not start WWIII, before something like a confrontation in the Baltic's does start a major war.

If sides had been more peacefully assertive and communicative before WWI I think it may have been avoided as the treaties from 1815 largely preserved the peace in Europe until 1914, although with Hitler's aims I think WWII was probably unavoidable, but without WWI would not have happened. The current situation in Eastern Europe has many parallels to both events and IMO peaceful assertion is what is required. I think we all know that sanctions are at most an inconvenience with an overall economic cost rather than a game changer, but right now they are the best immediate option we have got, while Western Europe reduces it dependence on Russian energy. Russian companies have got to refinance over $700bn of western lending to their industries in the next 2 years and making this more difficult / expensive will hit their industries and economy hard and make Putin's job much harder and position as leader more difficult where the people that keep him power do so on the tacit understanding that their standard of living constantly improves.

[Rods2]

This Chronology of events has been put together by The Interpreter Magazine. For them to accept something as a fact it has to be collaborated from multiple sources and with images and films they have from local citizens have to be geo-located.

http://www.interpretermag.com/evidence-review-who-shot-down-mh17/

It looks like the EU is going to get tough on sanctions at last. Will it make any difference in the short term to what is happening in Ukraine? Unlikely, where Russia is still escalating the situation, including 'Hamas' style rocket attacks from inside Russia over the Russian / Ukrainian border at Ukrainian border stations and the military units guarding the border. Ukraine has regained much of the border, but there are still entry and exit routes being used by the Russian terrorists and their ever increasing heavy equipment in terms of quality and quantity from terrorist training camps set up in Russia around the city of Rostov. Will sanctions make a difference long term, yes, where the combined GDP's of those imposing them which includes the US, Canada, EU, Japan and other OSCE members is over $35tn against a Russian economy of less than $2tn. EU-Russian trade is over $100bn with Russia enjoying about a $40bn trade surplus. It is already affecting their energy sector as they are finding it much more difficult and expensive to refinance their borrowings and with the latest EU sanctions being talked about for next week meaning that no western bank is going to want new untradeable loans on their books.

What we are all going to have to accept is that we have a rogue, pariah, gangster state with Putin the chief gangster on our door steps, which the west in going to have to continue to confront and control.

There are rumours going round that the US is going to grant Ukraine favoured nation status and supply military aid which will certainly help Ukraine defend their country against an illegal attack and terror war from the 'neighbour from hell'.

[Shackeng]

Europe in general has been utterly naive in giving a hostage to fortune by allowing itself to become so dependent on Russian Energy. In our case, the "City" has effectively been the de facto money launderer for all the 'dirty' money that flowed out of Russia since the end of the cold war. All these chickens are now coming home to roost, and with a vengeance!

[cem_devecioglu]

 
http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/peace-and-prosperity/2014/july/23/fixing-facts-around-the-policy-is-the-us-government-manipulating-social-media.aspx