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[Kevin Wood]

So, these "rebels" are suddenly all under Putin's command after all?

[tigers_gonads]

So, these "rebels" are suddenly all under Putin's command after all?

Nah, its just a horrible rumour spread by the west 

[Rods2]

IMO unless Putin is under much more immediate financial pressure than the figures suggest or Obama has finally grown a pair and has told Putin he will send Ukraine defensive weapons, which pushes the Russian army casualties above what Putin can reasonably hide, then I'm very doubtful that the ceasefire will even stop the fighting, let alone hold if Putin has not achieved in secret Appendices the things that he has started the war over which are:

1. Ukraine agrees to never join NATO with a Donbas veto.
2. Ukraine agrees to never join the EU with a Donbas veto.
3. The Putin Donbas tail wags the Ukrainian dog on all important domestic issues, so the Ukrainian people continue to endure endemic corruption and are vassals of Putin and Russian Mafia gangs.
4. All other foreign policy is decided in the Kremlin and anything Putin disagrees with is voted on in the Donbass so Putins view always prevails.
5. Points 3 and 4 will make sure that the Ukrainian state and people remain very, very poor in a semi-failed state. Ukraine being a rich successful state like other ex-communist East European countries, with a free press and humans rights, will show the Russian people you can have it all and risk Putin suffering a Moscow Maiden. So Putin must have enough hold on Ukraine to make sure this never happens.

[aaronjb]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31449981

Intense fighting has been reported in eastern Ukraine, a day after a peace deal was reached in Minsk.

I guess nobody told them.

[05omegav6]

If they empty the arsenal before Sunday, it will save on packing

Given that the ceasefire starts on Sunday, it rather suggests that the letter if the agreement has taken priority over the spirit of it, which to my mind rather misses the point

[Sir Tigger KC]

Yes I couldn't and still can't understand why they didn't order an immediate ceasefire. 

How many will die before Sunday? 

[aaronjb]

Ah, I missed that the ceasefire hadn't taken effect yet, but you're right.. this isn't the 1800s when a rider had to be dispatched to the front lines to inform the men to stop fighting - I'm sure they have radios, mobile phones, computerised telecommunications etc.

"We have a ceasefire but we'll damn well keep killing them right up to the deadline" seems a little asinine, doesn't it.

I suppose Russia would say the Ukranians started it, as I can see why they'd want to continue to try and repel what they see as an invading force in their land, ceasefire or not..

[Rods2]

No real surprise as the Russian forces want to finish trapping 5-7000 Ukrainian troops is the Debaltseve salient. Russia is so desperate to do this that they have been reports of them using their air force (SU25's) to bomb Ukrainian positions. Russian deaths have been high where Ukrainian forces have given a good account of themselves defending their positions.

Personally, I think Ukrainian forces should have withdrawn from the salient sometime a go as there is only one road out of the area with lakes either side at the head of the area so it was always going to be very difficult to defend it. But it has the strategic value to Ukraine where it made life very difficult for the Russian resupply of Donetsk, where the main road was impassible to their supply convoys, where Ukrainian forces could attack them unless they were 'humanitarian' convoys allegedly supplying arms and ammunition to Russian forces.

When Minsk2 fails, Russia will then try to kick on in the spring all through South Ukraine, so they have a land bridge to Crimea and then into Moldova, to also stop their closer ties with the EU and potential NATO membership, in a bigger war which will include the use of the Russian air force to bomb many cities in Ukraine. In the meanwhile there will be more hand wringing from Obama, Merkel and Hollande as we inevitably head towards WWIII, which if any of them had any spines, could have been avoided by making Putin pay a far higher price in Ukraine.

Only good news today is that Canada have announced they will start supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine when Minsk 2 fails. Canada have been Ukraine's best western ally with much non-lethal aid, including volunteer medical teams supplied, to date.

[Rods2]

So, these "rebels" are suddenly all under Putin's command after all?

Nothing I haven't been telling you for along time. It is a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has been from day 1.

Igor Girkin was the FSB (KGB) leader that organised the attacks and takeover of Donetsk and surrounding areas Ukrainian administration buildings to form the DNR and was their military commander has been very honest on this after he was deposed.

The hard lesson that Russia is learning from what has happened in East Ukraine is the limits of their deniable hybrid wars. This is they don't work when you have a disinterested / hostile Russian population you are there to 'defend'. This is good as it will help to stop this happening in the Baltic countries. The other lessons is that employing Russian unemployed alcoholic bums with a bit of past military service as mercenaries is that they are not very good, are pretty uncontrollable, and are a definite liability by the time they are pissed on Vodka from the late morning onwards. One of the Ukrainian Oligarchs who has been supplying humanitarian aid to the Donbas has contraband confiscated by the Ukrainian authorities, where it contained a large percentage of tobacco and vodka. 

The Western MSM have been awful, it makes you realise how very poor they are, when you go to much more direct sources for news from both sides. The BBC is classed and joked about as a tragic laughing stock by those that know better. Like "How much they have earned off Putin to today for each use of the words 'rebels' and 'separatists'!" A big problem is that many Western correspondents covering Ukraine are based in Moscow and you don't get asked to leave Russia by broadly following the Putin propaganda line.

TBH covering what is happening in Ukraine through hundreds of direct sources has been a real eye opener for me on how very poor and manipulated the West's MSM are.

It has also exposed some sources for good like 'bellingcat' run by a Brit 'Elliot Higgins' where it is a forensic analysis website that is doing much good in gaining evidence on the shooting down of MH17 and also the use of chemical weapons by Assad in Syria which is still going on!

Another thing I have learnt is that the Kremlin always signal their intentions to test western reaction and if negative / push back against Russia they will reconsider, by they always get the green from Western indifference and slow reaction, which is why things are so very dangerous for Ukraine and Western Security right now.

[Shackeng]

I agree with Rods, while the West is dithering over ISIS, Putin will keep pushing the envelope. The ceasefire is a meaningless peace (pun intended) of paper, just like Chamberlain's at Munich.

[Kevin Wood]

So, these "rebels" are suddenly all under Putin's command after all?

Nothing I haven't been telling you for along time. It is a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has been from day 1.

Hence the irony in my post.

While he's taking the flack they are "rebels" and nothing to do with him. When the cards are on the table he's able to negotiate. Does he think we the west's leaders are daft? (Well, OK, I'll give him that one.).

[Varche]

I agree with Rods, while the West is dithering over ISIS, Putin will keep pushing the envelope. The ceasefire is a meaningless peace (pun intended) of paper, just like Chamberlain's at Munich.

What are they? Perhaps 20,000 fighters possessing some artillery and armour but no air force. They have an island of tenuously occupied territory in a sea of hostile regimes — those of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Iraq's Kurdish region. In total these command about two million troops who, with ample air power, can pulverise the Islamic State whenever the regimes summon the will to do so. This latter point  will of course be the sticking point. We have seen Jordan break ranks but the others have vested interests, I suspect. Certainly Saudi Arabia.

Trouble is it is easier to latch onto ISIS than it is Putin.