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[Lizzie Zoom]

It's now been reported that the USA have blamed the Iranians backed up[surprise,surprise by the UK ]Obviously the Iranians have completely refuted these allegations,will the truth ever really be known?

Film footage has been released today by the US alegedly showing a Iranian Revolutionary Guard boat removing unexplored mines from the side of one of the tankers at night. They have also released pictures that show one of the tankers with two blast holes in their hulls well above the waterline, which rather discounts the theory torpedoes were used.

As you said in your thread Baza, Denial and Blame is the name of the game, and as I hinted in my previous post, this is a very dangerous game!  the rhetoric is certainly hotting up between Iran and USA

[Sir Tigger KC]

Iran are playing a dangerous game.   

A game they are playing with the knowledge and approval of Russia and China no doubt. 

[Lizzie Zoom]

Iran are playing a dangerous game.   

A game they are playing with the knowledge and approval of Russia and China no doubt. 

....and that is what concerns me, with maybe North Korea somewhere at the table of this game against the USA and the West generally.

History is never exactly repeated, but I still hold by my concerns that this game of diplomacy, if you can call it that, reminds me of the lead up to the Great War as I outlined before. Bad diplomacy, hidden and not so hidden agendas, political aims of conquering, misunderstandings, poor communications, obsession with revenge, leaders intent on being the man, and one spark of action, minor in itself, that ignited the storm.  That is what worries me and makes me now fear for all our safety.

I just prey that whoever is the lead in any diplomacy attempting to defuse this situation has a better outcome than the unfortunate British Foreign Secraty in 1914, Sir Edward Grey!

At the very least just watch the price of oil zoom, but that actually is the very least of what should concern us

[BazaJT]

No problem with the thread "hijacking" Lizzie and as for older age I don't think we're that far apart either so I'm probably as bad off as you!

[ronnyd]

The fact that these tankers were Japanese strikes me as a very interesting factor. Could be coincidence of course, but the Japanese Prime Minister has made a point of meeting up with the Iranian leader, to request they stop all nuclear development, and wants a meeting with Kim Jon to pursued N. Korea to stop nuclear development, whilst re-itterating the close ties to the USA with the Trump visit who trying also to stop those countries developing nuclear weapons. Interesting.

All players in place, so light the fuse?  By whom, and why we may never know, with even Putin setting up this game to create an international incident in that part of the World to suit his intentions and play against the USA. 

Complicated conjecture yes, diplomatically a possibility, well yes, and remember how 'The Players' of the time all did not work together diplomatically, when they were wanting a fight, after the shooting of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was the excuse to start WW1.

Wasn.t one of them Norwegian? 

[Lizzie Zoom]

No problem with the thread "hijacking" Lizzie and as for older age I don't think we're that far apart either so I'm probably as bad off as you!

 

[Lizzie Zoom]

The fact that these tankers were Japanese strikes me as a very interesting factor. Could be coincidence of course, but the Japanese Prime Minister has made a point of meeting up with the Iranian leader, to request they stop all nuclear development, and wants a meeting with Kim Jon to pursued N. Korea to stop nuclear development, whilst re-itterating the close ties to the USA with the Trump visit who trying also to stop those countries developing nuclear weapons. Interesting.

All players in place, so light the fuse?  By whom, and why we may never know, with even Putin setting up this game to create an international incident in that part of the World to suit his intentions and play against the USA. 

Complicated conjecture yes, diplomatically a possibility, well yes, and remember how 'The Players' of the time all did not work together diplomatically, when they were wanting a fight, after the shooting of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was the excuse to start WW1.

Wasn.t one of them Norwegian? 

Yes it now turns out one is, but it was stated yesterday that both were Japanese.

Now, why it was first reported as it was is a question in itself, that any conspiracy theorist could read much into. Was it fake news as Trump would claim, a deliberate error to link the Japanese Prime Minister with the attack as he is going through a programme of meeting up with the key players in those parts over nuclear weapons (who has asked him to do that, for what reason??) or simply human "error"

We may never know, or perhaps we will!

Going back in history just remember the attack on Pearl Harbour; there are a few historians who claim to have proved BOTH Winston Churchill and the American President KNEW in advance that the Japanese attacks was going to happen at Pearl, but for very obvious political reasons they let it happen. So, what Trump knows, what has actually happened, and who is involved, is a question that should be met with an open mind. History may well give us the answers in the future!

[BazaJT]

The confusion may have been caused by the Iranian statement that the tankers were carrying Japanese related cargo-as far as I know no-one claimed they were Japanese vessels.The Japanese despite the sanctions do export oil to Iran.

[Rods2]

This Statfor article well worth reading where they are one of two US companies (the other Geopolitical Futures. Both founded by George Friedman, who lives & breaths geopolitics) focusing on why Iran has attacked the tankers to boost popularity at home. I'm aware there has been significant unrest reported over the last 6 months due to sanctions & workers not getting paid. How they have brutally rebuffed Japanese PM Abe where his diplomatic mission was to try & reduce tensions between US & Iran & why such a brazen move makes very dangerous but strategic sense for the Iranian leadership.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/iran-going-all-against-us-trump-nuclear-oil-tanker-hormuz

Iran is backed by the usual anti-west suspects of China, DPRK with missile & nuclear technology and Russia with nuclear material and missile technology. Russia has also supplied S300/S400 SAM systems to Iran. These are formidable A2D systems, especially the S400 which has anti-stealth capabilities.

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iran-may-have-the-s-400-in-all-but-name-what-russia-really-delivered-in-2016-and-why-it-matters

This 2008 paper on both the Iranian & US options is well worth reading but keep in mind that this was before the Russian update of Iranian air defense systems & the US has been massively updating their anti-mine & mine planting systems in contested airspace including the use of standoff weapons & drones.

https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/isec.2008.33.1.82

What also needs to be remembered is that Russia under Putin has been updating and preparing their armed forces for fighting a war tomorrow, whereas the West after 1991 has got very complacent, concentrated on low-level wars against terrorists with many deficiencies when it come to fighting major adversities. Europe is largely unprepared to be able to fight any major war against major adversities with the UK and France best placed for bit parts.

https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/isec.2008.33.1.82

If Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz then expect it to be closed for 1 to 3 months with a massive oil price spike & fuel shortages at best.

Weak defences encourage adversaries to try their luck & test the resolve of those they want to subdue or conquer. Western complacency, since 1991, against the Chines, Russian, Iranian & DPRK military expansion & modernization is indeed making this a very dangerous world, which is probably going to end very badly where we have empowered our enemies with their plying & European dependency on Russian oil & gas (which could / can be largely avoided by fracking known European reserves, hence lots of Russian money & agents backing for anti-fracking treehugger green groups) and our addiction to cheap Chinese tat.

[Lizzie Zoom]

The confusion may have been caused by the Iranian statement that the tankers were carrying Japanese related cargo-as far as I know no-one claimed they were Japanese vessels.The Japanese despite the sanctions do export oil to Iran.

Once more that "Japanese" link occurs!

[Lizzie Zoom]

This is getting even more curious in a very odd way ; as I mentioned before ITV early evening news made no mention yesterday of the tanker incident.

They have done it again, no mention during their bulletin this evening.

Of course, like most other news channels, the BBC led the news with first the continuing story of the British-Iranian woman still held in an Iranian jail, with a quick mention of the continuing tanker issue linking it in to the fact that with the mounting tensions they will not release her anytime soon.

Now, conspiracists on here: why is at least the early evening main ITV news not commenting on the very serious international incident,,whilst the great BBC is? 

[Lizzie Zoom]

Surprise, surprise, now Saudia Arabia has stated that a "decisive" response to the tanker attacks is required.

What that "Decisive" response should be can only be guessed at!