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Author Topic: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine  (Read 33255 times)

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STEMO

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Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« on: 22 February 2022, 19:48:23 »
There's a deafening silence about events in Eastern Europe, cat got yer tongues?

By my reckoning, Vlad is laughing his cock off. He has spent these last few years, since the annexation of Crimea, making Russia shock proof with regards to financial sanctions. His foreign reserves amount to over £6 billion dollars, with very little in dollar denominations. It's mostly gold and a good whack of the Chinese Renminbi.
As for suspending Nordstream 2, well, no gas and, therefore, no revenue has flowed either way yet. It's Europe that will suffer if the gas is stopped.
There's not much at all the west can do to hurt him. He knows it, we know it.
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STEMO

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #1 on: 22 February 2022, 19:51:49 »
The Russian stock market, the MOEX, dropped by over 10% yesterday, opened 6% down this morning. That's a big hit. But, by close of play, it was up 1.5%, so a very short, sharp shock. Oil is nearing $100 a barrel, and guess who'll profit from that?
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #2 on: 22 February 2022, 20:03:42 »
The Saudis...
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STEMO

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #3 on: 22 February 2022, 20:05:34 »
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #4 on: 22 February 2022, 20:06:32 »
Not for us they don't.
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STEMO

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #5 on: 22 February 2022, 20:09:29 »
Quote from: Doctor Gollum on 22 February 2022, 20:06:32
Not for us they don't.
God, you're hard work. If you've got nothing constructive to add, shut up.
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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #6 on: 22 February 2022, 20:12:19 »
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STEMO

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #7 on: 22 February 2022, 20:27:27 »
I don't fickin care who buys Russia's oil. I never said anything about who buys Russia's oil. Someone does, so they make lots of money when the price goes up. Can you actually see that?
It's only one part of the situation, one which you chose to nitpick on for whatever reason you keep doing it, thread after thread.


Which is nice  ::)
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #8 on: 22 February 2022, 20:44:58 »
My point was that they don't care about financial sanctions because they will always be able to move cash through China.

Ukraine wants to become part of the EU, presumably for financial benefit, and Nato presumably for defence from Russian aggression... (not sure how that works because they will be the front line).

Invading Ukraine protects Crimea and the Russian Black Sea access. Holding gas to ransom is a moot point as all the countries that rely on it will have to buy it regardless... Restricting Russian supply is obviously going to drive prices up because it will increase demand from gas produced elsewhere.

If this were a game of Chess, then Putin has called Check and whatever the next two moves, he will be calling Check Mate. Nato/EU/Bozzle/Sippy Cup can call for a time out, but they can't change the board...
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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #9 on: 22 February 2022, 20:46:16 »
Quote from: Doctor Gollum on 22 February 2022, 20:44:58
My point was that they don't care about financial sanctions because they will always be able to move cash through China.

Ukraine wants to become part of the EU, presumably for financial benefit, and Nato presumably for defence from Russian aggression... (not sure how that works because they will be the front line).

Invading Ukraine protects Crimea and the Russian Black Sea access. Holding gas to ransom is a moot point as all the countries that rely on it will have to buy it regardless... Restricting Russian supply is obviously going to drive prices up because it will increase demand from gas produced elsewhere.

If this were a game of Chess, then Putin has called Check and whatever the next two moves, he will be calling Check Mate. Nato/EU/Bozzle/Sippy Cup can call for a time out, but they can't change the board...
No, that wasn't your point at all. Backtracking, as usual.
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #10 on: 22 February 2022, 20:56:04 »
China bought almost half of Russian oil exports in 2020. Stands to reason that will continue regardless.

The only question is how much Putin wants to control Ukraine and how much We want to stop him.
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Sir Tigger KC

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #11 on: 22 February 2022, 22:17:55 »


As you can see from the chart the Ruble has weakened massively in recent years, which has two effects, imports that have to be purchased in foreign currency are much more expensive, but Russian exports, notably oil & gas which are priced in US dollars have become a huge windfall for Uncle Vlad!

Uncle Vlad of course has spent this windfall expanding and modernising Russia's military in recent years, while Western countries have progressively cut their military budgets to the bone!  ::)

I lived in Vietnam briefly in 2009/10 and all the beach resorts then were full of Russians on their holibobs.  When I went back for a visit in 2016/17, there were far fewer Ruskies about, and there were some great deals at the beach resort hotels who were desperate for customers due to the lack of Russians who weren't coming as their foreign holidays had become much more expensive. 

Maybe they were going to Crimea instead!  ;)

Although I wouldn't fancy Yalta much for some winter sunshine!  ;D
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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #12 on: 23 February 2022, 00:05:24 »
As an aside, did anyone else think he looked deranged at that staged meeting with his chiefs.

Maybe he is auditioning for the next Bond villain.
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Sir Tigger KC

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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #13 on: 23 February 2022, 10:48:51 »
“From a Siberian oil field it is estimated that every $10 increase in the price of oil delivers an extra $60 m/day in tax revenues to the Russian govt”

From an article in The Times today.

In contrast the British govt has turned away from the oil and gas industry in it's green insanity, and is imposing tax increases on the population instead. 

The latest little bit of madness I saw recently was that the construction industry will no longer be allowed to use red diesel to curb emissions. No matter that hydrogen or electric excavators or other plant are not available, so they just have to use white diesel and suck it up....

Tough on small operators, but I guess Mr Sunak will be happy with the increased revenue.  ::)
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Re: Well, come on, let's do Ukraine
« Reply #14 on: 23 February 2022, 11:19:57 »
They did that to marine operators about twelve years ago. And then offered a rebate on any fuel not used for propulsion. The then Customs and Excise decided that 40% was reasonable amount for heating/cooking/electrical. Fuel on the Broads doubled overnight.
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