So, 0.9% of the results in, and Labour are 6/6.
However, 5 of those are moot as they're seat that they've held. Whilst the outcome is the same, it isn't quite the same thing as a gain.
Looking at it, in outright numbers: I suspect Reform will see more votes this time than Labour managed last time, and Labour will receive less votes this time than Conservatives last time.
So:
Reform to exceed 10,300,000.
Labour to not exceed 13,966,000.
Conservatives to fail to reach 9,000,000.
Well...
Labour 9,686,329
Reform 4,092,209
Conservative 6,814,650
In the immortal words of Jim Steinmann/Meatloaf... Two outta three ain't bad. But it's hardly a ringing endorsement of Labour.
Under a different system, we could have woken to a Conservative/Reform coalition.
The '
problem' reason is that Reform(or whatever they're calling themselves this week) have never had a national strategy because they've always been a bunch of mismatched independents standing under one name. So instead of concentrating like Lib Dems on winnable seats, they dumped a load of candidates throughout the country and diluted - or eliminated - previous majorities that had a lot in common with their stated policies while getting less than 1% of Labour's MPs.
That's what happened in my constituency:
Reform 9989
Conservative 1169
Labour 13689,
whereas the previous Conservative MP had a majority of 18540. There was a boundary change which does affect the figures, but this has been a safe Conservative seat for a while.
You should not, at least if you're honest or competent, use just numbers to prove a national point either; look at the deliberately humiliating result for Liz Truss considering her previously untouchable majority, or the predictable result of Jeremy Corbin standing as an independent in his long held seat. It's also interesting to note how badly previous contenders for the Conservative leadership did - Mordaunt, Shapps, Reese-Mogg together with other senior ministers.
Sunak's time as leader is over; they just need to find another sucker, and I doubt it will be long before there's a bye-election as he tries to quietly slip away to more profitable employment.