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Author Topic: HS2 - another money pit?  (Read 3641 times)

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Lizzie_Zoom

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #30 on: 11 March 2013, 15:52:33 »

Quote
Who uses these HS services? In the main business people, but then your average traveller as well.  As for families travelling the services; well they already do to go through the Chunnel and onto Europe. This would expand to those wishing to travel from the North to Europe.  Is that hard to understand?

Exactly my point, people who can expense. In terms of numbers, actually very low in grand scheme of things.

Average developer, manager ect, cannot expense, so won't pay it.

All this talk of boosting traffic to Europe and other stuff, you don't seriously believe it do you? HS2 is not going to add sudden new abilities that have never been seen before.

If you live in Birmingham you can take West Coast to London, then switch to Paris line already, all HS2 does is save you 20 mins.

20 mins at a cost of billions  :o

Just wake up earlier  ::)

It is far more than that Tunnie; that is just one part of the overall vision.  The domestic services are an even more important element.  Have you seen how overcrowded our trains are during peak times that go on and on?  That just cannot continue.  Once people did not want to travel by the new unknown, and apparently dangerous trains, preferring to stay travelling on stage coaches.  That soon changed as time saved was proved and safety was established relative to the dangerous stage coach travel and the cost was accepted. The advantages of HS lines will become the norm and all arguments against them read about in history books with historians trying to establish what all the fuss was about. :D :D :D ;) ;)
« Last Edit: 11 March 2013, 15:55:51 by Lizzie Zoom »
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Lizzie_Zoom

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #31 on: 11 March 2013, 16:09:33 »

Quote
Who uses these HS services? In the main business people, but then your average traveller as well.  As for families travelling the services; well they already do to go through the Chunnel and onto Europe. This would expand to those wishing to travel from the North to Europe.  Is that hard to understand?

Exactly my point, people who can expense. In terms of numbers, actually very low in grand scheme of things.

Average developer, manager ect, cannot expense, so won't pay it.

All this talk of boosting traffic to Europe and other stuff, you don't seriously believe it do you? HS2 is not going to add sudden new abilities that have never been seen before.

If you live in Birmingham you can take West Coast to London, then switch to Paris line already, all HS2 does is save you 20 mins.

20 mins at a cost of billions  :o

Just wake up earlier  ::)

It is far more than that Tunnie; that is just one part of the overall vision.  The domestic services are an even more important element.  Have you seen how overcrowded our trains are during peak times that go on and on?  That just cannot continue.  Once people did not want to travel by the new unknown, and apparently dangerous trains, preferring to stay travelling on stage coaches.  That soon changed as time saved was proved and safety was established relative to the dangerous stage coach travel and the cost was accepted. The advantages of HS lines will become the norm and all arguments against them read about in history books with historians trying to establish what all the fuss was about. :D :D :D ;) ;)

Oh, and your concern over business users the only ones using these HS trains:

Well, Concorde, that many on here praise so much, survived initially on business travel, and then celeb traffic. In fact it was the decline of business traffic that finally killed off the Concorde dream sadly due to safety concerns and increased costs.

The trains originally relied on high paying customers to get the services going, with freight even more important to their success. "Commoners" travelling then developed with eventually far better accommodation provided for them away from mere cattle trucks.

What am I saying?  I am saying what I have said before.  The new HS business will take time to develop and in reality it is being built for 2025 onwards, although many recognise we need it now in addition to the billions being spent already on the existing system. :D :D :y 
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tunnie

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #32 on: 11 March 2013, 16:32:28 »

Quote
Who uses these HS services? In the main business people, but then your average traveller as well.  As for families travelling the services; well they already do to go through the Chunnel and onto Europe. This would expand to those wishing to travel from the North to Europe.  Is that hard to understand?

Exactly my point, people who can expense. In terms of numbers, actually very low in grand scheme of things.

Average developer, manager ect, cannot expense, so won't pay it.

All this talk of boosting traffic to Europe and other stuff, you don't seriously believe it do you? HS2 is not going to add sudden new abilities that have never been seen before.

If you live in Birmingham you can take West Coast to London, then switch to Paris line already, all HS2 does is save you 20 mins.

20 mins at a cost of billions  :o

Just wake up earlier  ::)

It is far more than that Tunnie; that is just one part of the overall vision.  The domestic services are an even more important element.  Have you seen how overcrowded our trains are during peak times that go on and on? That just cannot continue.  Once people did not want to travel by the new unknown, and apparently dangerous trains, preferring to stay travelling on stage coaches.  That soon changed as time saved was proved and safety was established relative to the dangerous stage coach travel and the cost was accepted. The advantages of HS lines will become the norm and all arguments against them read about in history books with historians trying to establish what all the fuss was about. :D :D :D ;) ;)

Yeah? I always got a seat when commuting. Without fail, very few people standing.

Travel outside commuter times & the train is practically empty.

Hopefully it will get canned, Ealing Council won't be letting it happen unless they tunnel under hanger lane... which is not on the current plan



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Rods2

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #33 on: 11 March 2013, 16:58:40 »

From Reading's MP John Redwood daily diary today he says:

"Some believe that HS2 is a crucial economic project that can open up business to the North. However the business plans show it will be heavily loss making and struggle to attract enough passengers. It is twentieth century technology, when China is pressing on with maglev, and the US with its digital revolution allowing good communcations from remote locations."

He also thinks it will be a loss making white elephant!

At 50 minutes it would just about put Birmingham in commuter range, but with a Maglev line running at Shanghai speed it would take under 30 minutes, so you would save a hour, it would also mean the cities further north would be within commuter distance, working on the accepted maximum of one hour each way.

With Maglev technology you running costs are much, much lower, so it would make it more likely to be affordable, where as long distance Victorian style transport we know isn't. I would always fly up to Manchester, Edinburgh etc as it is cheaper and quicker, than use this old (from experience) unreliable technology.

Very little freight goes by rail as it is too expensive due to the much higher loading on the rails. So each loaded freight train uses rail life up for about 10 passenger trains. This is just one of the limitations of soon to be obsolete in many forward looking Asian countries Victorian technology.

Still the 21st century will belong to Asia with the US still in there, but Western Europe will be a 3rd world country under a nasty Brussels based dictatorship with largely equal levels of misery and starvation, apart for the elite!

If you have to commute regularly to Paris for meetings the only sensible way is too fly as the Eurostar is too slow to do that in one day, where as with flying you can. How do I know, because at one time I had to do it on a regular basis, so call it practical experience. From Birmingham, you would use one of the Midland's airports and never consider Eurostar for a one day meeting.
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tunnie

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #34 on: 11 March 2013, 17:02:41 »

Birmingham has a great little airport, FatherT he uses it weekly.  :)
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Terbs

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #35 on: 11 March 2013, 17:47:59 »

So the commuter trains are packed at the moment........so how will high speed unpack them. The same commuters will still pack the commuter trains for one obvious reason.....they have to get to London to catch a high speed thing in the first place.
So....if I, living in wycombe want to get to Birmingham quicker....I catch an earlier train!!!!! HS2 will only be used by people south of London ;)
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Lizzie_Zoom

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #36 on: 11 March 2013, 17:51:20 »

Quote
Who uses these HS services? In the main business people, but then your average traveller as well.  As for families travelling the services; well they already do to go through the Chunnel and onto Europe. This would expand to those wishing to travel from the North to Europe.  Is that hard to understand?

Exactly my point, people who can expense. In terms of numbers, actually very low in grand scheme of things.

Average developer, manager ect, cannot expense, so won't pay it.

All this talk of boosting traffic to Europe and other stuff, you don't seriously believe it do you? HS2 is not going to add sudden new abilities that have never been seen before.

If you live in Birmingham you can take West Coast to London, then switch to Paris line already, all HS2 does is save you 20 mins.

20 mins at a cost of billions  :o

Just wake up earlier  ::)

It is far more than that Tunnie; that is just one part of the overall vision.  The domestic services are an even more important element.  Have you seen how overcrowded our trains are during peak times that go on and on? That just cannot continue.  Once people did not want to travel by the new unknown, and apparently dangerous trains, preferring to stay travelling on stage coaches.  That soon changed as time saved was proved and safety was established relative to the dangerous stage coach travel and the cost was accepted. The advantages of HS lines will become the norm and all arguments against them read about in history books with historians trying to establish what all the fuss was about. :D :D :D ;) ;)

Yeah? I always got a seat when commuting. Without fail, very few people standing.

Travel outside commuter times & the train is practically empty.

Hopefully it will get canned, Ealing Council won't be letting it happen unless they tunnel under hanger lane... which is not on the current plan

Indeed trains can be quite empty at out of peak hours. However hundreds of thousands do not have that luxury and if you have ever travelled on an over crowded commuter train as I did constantly, and the situation is even worse now, you would not argue against addition, fast, capacity. ;) ;)

Once again I say: WE are talking about the years from 2020 to 2050, not tomorrow.

As for Maglev, I stand by my original comments about cost of construction and add how do you think the NIMBY lobby would welcome a line standing well above the ground, on concrete stilts across their wonderful countryside.  So not only on cost grounds there is also the environmental consideration that so many on here seem to worry about in other debates! ::) ::) ::) ::)

Bottom line we cannot afford Maglev!
« Last Edit: 11 March 2013, 17:57:44 by Lizzie Zoom »
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Lizzie_Zoom

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #37 on: 11 March 2013, 18:03:25 »

From Reading's MP John Redwood daily diary today he says:

"Some believe that HS2 is a crucial economic project that can open up business to the North. However the business plans show it will be heavily loss making and struggle to attract enough passengers. It is twentieth century technology, when China is pressing on with maglev, and the US with its digital revolution allowing good communcations from remote locations."

He also thinks it will be a loss making white elephant!


Very little freight goes by rail as it is too expensive due to the much higher loading on the rails. So each loaded freight train uses rail life up for about 10 passenger trains. This is just one of the limitations of soon to be obsolete in many forward looking Asian countries Victorian technology.



John Redwood's opinion is just that: his opinion.

As for freight Rods2, if you were to see the very long container trains that I see regularly coming through Ashford to and from the continent perhaps you would be more convinced about rail freight. Admitted though it should be at even higher levels across the whole rail system. ;)
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Rods2

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #38 on: 11 March 2013, 18:45:29 »

From Reading's MP John Redwood daily diary today he says:

"Some believe that HS2 is a crucial economic project that can open up business to the North. However the business plans show it will be heavily loss making and struggle to attract enough passengers. It is twentieth century technology, when China is pressing on with maglev, and the US with its digital revolution allowing good communcations from remote locations."

He also thinks it will be a loss making white elephant!


Very little freight goes by rail as it is too expensive due to the much higher loading on the rails. So each loaded freight train uses rail life up for about 10 passenger trains. This is just one of the limitations of soon to be obsolete in many forward looking Asian countries Victorian technology.



John Redwood's opinion is just that: his opinion.

As for freight Rods2, if you were to see the very long container trains that I see regularly coming through Ashford to and from the continent perhaps you would be more convinced about rail freight. Admitted though it should be at even higher levels across the whole rail system. ;)

He is a lot more insightful than most, especially as an MP he has good access to information, that is not so readily available to us.

Very simple if HS2 is such a good profitable business idea, get private industry to build it, without subsidies as this is the real world test for it. This was how the Eurotunnel was build as Margret thatcher's bill to allow it to be build made it impossible for it to receive UK government subsidies, so when it got into difficulty, party due to more onerous H&S standards, they and their shareholders were on their own to sort it. Why should the overtaxed UK workforce subsidise such white elephants like this.

History may judge, not using Maglev differently, showing that for it to be a profitable line, that we could not afford, not to use this technology. When talking about environmental impact don't forget that where there in no physical contact, Maglev is much quieter.
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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #39 on: 11 March 2013, 19:09:29 »

Birmingham has a great little airport, FatherT he uses it weekly.  :)
Sadly, it will not be served by HS2. Nor will Heathrow. Or any other airport ::)
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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #40 on: 11 March 2013, 19:16:01 »

Have you seen how overcrowded our trains are during peak times that go on and on?  That just cannot continue.
As someone who regularly travels at peak times on both of the Birmingham to London lines, neither are what I would call "overcrowded". Its incredibly rare not to have a seat.

If it was to cure overcrowding, then why send it to Birmingham? Why not Bristol? Thats the busy line.

As terbert rightly says, it won't cure overcrowding, as everyone will use the local trains which stop more conveniently, thus making them, ironically, faster.
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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #41 on: 11 March 2013, 20:44:06 »

Its a fact that everyone wants to go to Birmingham....not....thats why Chiltern rail are offering me seats to go to Birmingham from Wycombe out of peak hours for £6 each way....no thats not a mis-type...£6 each way. So much for crowded trains. So if the high speed train runs after 10.00am it will be economic ????? Yer' 'avin a larf ;D

Why would any right minded person, who has a station that connects to Birmingham, want to travel into London to get a non stop train. ??? Waste two/three hours getting to London, then cross London travel, plus expense, to save 20mins ???

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #42 on: 11 March 2013, 20:52:40 »

Its a fact that everyone wants to go to Birmingham....not....thats why Chiltern rail are offering me seats to go to Birmingham from Wycombe out of peak hours for £6 each way....no thats not a mis-type...£6 each way. So much for crowded trains. So if the high speed train runs after 10.00am it will be economic ????? Yer' 'avin a larf ;D

Why would any right minded person, who has a station that connects to Birmingham, want to travel into London to get a non stop train. ??? Waste two/three hours getting to London, then cross London travel, plus expense, to save 20mins ???
Precisely. Unless you happen to be where it starts, and want to go where it ends, its likely to be slower than the overpriced High Speed option.

So it will get built, and remain mostly empty. As tunnie rightly points out, HS1 proves there is no demand, despite what Network Rail and HS2 Ltd want to to believe.
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Lizzie_Zoom

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #43 on: 12 March 2013, 14:00:42 »

Its a fact that everyone wants to go to Birmingham....not....thats why Chiltern rail are offering me seats to go to Birmingham from Wycombe out of peak hours for £6 each way....no thats not a mis-type...£6 each way. So much for crowded trains. So if the high speed train runs after 10.00am it will be economic ????? Yer' 'avin a larf ;D

Why would any right minded person, who has a station that connects to Birmingham, want to travel into London to get a non stop train. ??? Waste two/three hours getting to London, then cross London travel, plus expense, to save 20mins ???
Precisely. Unless you happen to be where it starts, and want to go where it ends, its likely to be slower than the overpriced High Speed option.

So it will get built, and remain mostly empty. As tunnie rightly points out, HS1 proves there is no demand, despite what Network Rail and HS2 Ltd want to to believe.


Tell that TB to the Eurostar passengers, 9 million at last count, I see filling their trains going everyday through Ashford, and with many in this town who board it for destinations in Europe! ::) ::) ::) ::)

But, I suppose if you do not use it it must mean it is not needed! ::) ::) ;D ;D ;D ;D ;)
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tunnie

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Re: HS2 - another money pit?
« Reply #44 on: 12 March 2013, 14:43:36 »

Its a fact that everyone wants to go to Birmingham....not....thats why Chiltern rail are offering me seats to go to Birmingham from Wycombe out of peak hours for £6 each way....no thats not a mis-type...£6 each way. So much for crowded trains. So if the high speed train runs after 10.00am it will be economic ????? Yer' 'avin a larf ;D

Why would any right minded person, who has a station that connects to Birmingham, want to travel into London to get a non stop train. ??? Waste two/three hours getting to London, then cross London travel, plus expense, to save 20mins ???
Precisely. Unless you happen to be where it starts, and want to go where it ends, its likely to be slower than the overpriced High Speed option.

So it will get built, and remain mostly empty. As tunnie rightly points out, HS1 proves there is no demand, despite what Network Rail and HS2 Ltd want to to believe.


Tell that TB to the Eurostar passengers, 9 million at last count, I see filling their trains going everyday through Ashford, and with many in this town who board it for destinations in Europe! ::) ::) ::) ::)

But, I suppose if you do not use it it must mean it is not needed! ::) ::) ;D ;D ;D ;D ;)

Thats still way too low, they predicted massive amounts of passengers to justify the cost, which has not happened. So its 5 billion in debt, now they want to do the same with HS2. 

When you are presented with 3 options to get to London, one costs £100, second £120, third £200. Only difference is one is 20 mins faster.

Which one would you pick?  ::)

You can generally put customers for HS2 in 3 pots.

1) Tourist
2) Commuter
3) Business Travel

Looking at them again

1) Tourist - will not be interest in 20 minute saving, at cost of 30% premium. You generally want to travel for cheapest amount possible, then spend money at your destination or who you are with.

2) Commuter - Again want to get to work for cheapest amount, if that involves going in packed train, so be it. Don't kid yourself they would pay the premium (that they would for HS2), if they would, why does not everyone travel 1st class? That gets you a seat.... but does everyone pay it? Nope! (some do, but their numbers are very low)

3) Business Travel - The key here is business, those that are going for one off meeting, see a customer so on. And, are allowed to expense travel. If they get set amount, there again, cheapest wins. If they can expense 100%, then yes. But would companies wise to this extra cost, and say take West Coast? Quite possible.


So the bulk of people that would use this, are people who can expense, and want to go to Birmingham or London. and live in Birmingham or London. and don't travel on a daily basis. 
« Last Edit: 12 March 2013, 14:46:29 by tunnie »
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